Atlanta Falcons at Cleveland Browns
Sunday, December 13, 1:00 PM. Huntington Bank Field, Cleveland.
Falcons
1:00 PM
Browns
The model's pick
The pick is published during game week.
Keys
Keys are published on the Thursday of game week.
Starting quarterbacks
No starting quarterback data.
Injury report
Atlanta Falcons
- QuestionableJake MatthewsGroin - Questionable for Week 5 vs. Baltimore
- QuestionableJamal AgnewUndisclosed - Questionable for Week 5 vs. Baltimore
- QuestionableKevin KingUndisclosed - Questionable for Week 5 vs. Baltimore
- QuestionableMalik VerdonUndisclosed - Questionable for Week 5 vs. Baltimore
- QuestionableTroy AndersenKnee - Questionable for Week 5 vs. Baltimore
- QuestionableTyrone Wheatley Jr.Undisclosed - Questionable for Week 5 vs. Baltimore
Long-term absences (15)
- NFI listAnterio ThompsonUndisclosed - NFI-R for Week 5 vs. Baltimore
- I.L.Beaux CollinsI.L. - Undisclosed
- I.L.Cameron WilliamsI.L. - Ankle
- SidelinedCooper RushCoach's Decision - Inactive for Week 4 at New Orleans
- PUP listDeAngelo MaloneUndisclosed - Physically Unable to Perform
- SidelinedEthan OnianwaCoach's Decision - Inactive for Week 4 at New Orleans
- SidelinedJack StrandCoach's Decision - Inactive for Week 4 at New Orleans
- I.L.Jalon WalkerI.L. - Knee - ACL
- SidelinedJared IveyCoach's Decision - Inactive for Week 4 at New Orleans
- I.L.JD BertrandI.L. - Undisclosed
- LegKaleb McGaryRetired
- SidelinedMalcom DeWalt IVCoach's Decision - Inactive for Week 4 at New Orleans
- SidelinedRobert LongerbeamCoach's Decision - Inactive for Week 4 at New Orleans
- PUP listStorm NortonFoot - Physically Unable to Perform
- I.L.Trey SermonI.L. - Undisclosed
Cleveland Browns
- QuestionableAaron AndersonUndisclosed - Questionable for Week 5 at N.Y. Jets
- QuestionableDom JonesKnee - Questionable for Week 5 at N.Y. Jets
- QuestionableJamari ThrashUndisclosed - Questionable for Week 5 at N.Y. Jets
- QuestionableMason GrahamKnee - Questionable for Week 5 at N.Y. Jets
- QuestionableTeven JenkinsBack - Questionable for Week 5 at N.Y. Jets
- QuestionableTravis BellEye - Questionable for Week 5 at N.Y. Jets
- QuestionableTyreak SappUndisclosed - Questionable for Week 5 at N.Y. Jets
- QuestionableTyron HerringUndisclosed - Questionable for Week 5 at N.Y. Jets
Long-term absences (14)
- I.L.Alex WrightI.L. - Achilles
- I.L.Damarri MathisI.L. - Undisclosed
- I.L.Dillon GabrielI.L. - Back
- I.L.Dylan SampsonI.L. - Knee
- I.L.Edefuan UlofoshioI.L. - Biceps
- ConcussionElgton JenkinsInactive for Week 4 vs Pittsburgh
- I.L.Elijah ChatmanI.L. - Quadriceps
- PUP listJeremiah Owusu-KoramoahNeck - Physically Unable to Perform
- NFI listJoe RoyerPersonal - NFI-R for Week 5 at N.Y. Jets
- SidelinedJustin JeffersonCoach's Decision - Inactive for Week 4 vs Pittsburgh
- I.L.Kalia DavisI.L. - Quadriceps
- SidelinedNathaniel WatsonKnee - Out for Week 5 at N.Y. Jets. Expected Return - Week 7
- SidelinedTaylen GreenCoach's Decision - Inactive for Week 4 vs. Pittsburgh
- KneeTylan WallaceInactive for Week 4 vs Pittsburgh
The two teams
| Falcons | Browns | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 2-2 | 3-1 |
| Home | 0-1 | 2-0 |
| Away | 2-1 | 1-1 |
| Points per game | 24 | 20.3 |
| Points allowed per game | 23 | 23.8 |
| Streak | Won 2 | Won 3 |
| Division rank | 2nd in the NFC South | 1st in the AFC North |
How the pick is made
The model starts from each team's Elo rating and adds home-field advantage, rest and the status of the starting quarterback on the injury report. The difference gives the win probability and the projected score; the pick against the spread compares that margin with the market line.
Method and track record