Playoff odds
The rest of the regular season and the playoffs simulated 10,000 times with the Elo model. Updated Wednesday, October 7, 6:50 PM.
American Football Conference
| Team | Playoffs | Playoffs | Division | No. 1 seed | Super Bowl | Wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jacksonville JaguarsJaguars3-1 | 91% | 81% | 26% | 11% | 11.6 | |
| Kansas City ChiefsChiefs4-0 | 87% | 65% | 21% | 7% | 11.2 | |
| Buffalo BillsBills3-1 | 84% | 56% | 17% | 10% | 11.0 | |
| New England PatriotsPatriots2-2 | 73% | 42% | 8% | 5% | 10.1 | |
| Baltimore RavensRavens3-1 | 70% | 42% | 10% | 4% | 10.2 | |
| Denver BroncosBroncos2-2 | 60% | 23% | 6% | 4% | 9.6 | |
| Cleveland BrownsBrowns3-1 | 55% | 25% | 3% | 1% | 9.5 | |
| Cincinnati BengalsBengals2-2 | 46% | 18% | 2% | 1% | 9.0 | |
| Pittsburgh SteelersSteelers2-2 | 41% | 15% | 2% | 1% | 8.7 | |
| Las Vegas RaidersRaiders3-1 | 39% | 11% | 2% | 1% | 8.6 | |
| Indianapolis ColtsColts2-2 | 34% | 14% | 1% | 1% | 8.3 | |
| Houston TexansTexans0-4 | 11% | 4% | <1% | <1% | 6.5 | |
| New York JetsJets1-3 | 5% | 2% | <1% | <1% | 5.6 | |
| Los Angeles ChargersChargers0-4 | 3% | 1% | <1% | <1% | 4.9 | |
| Miami DolphinsDolphins0-4 | 2% | 1% | 0% | <1% | 4.5 | |
| Tennessee TitansTitans0-4 | 1% | <1% | 0% | 0% | 3.8 |
National Football Conference
| Team | Playoffs | Playoffs | Division | No. 1 seed | Super Bowl | Wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Minnesota VikingsVikings4-0 | 92% | 69% | 32% | 12% | 12.3 | |
| San Francisco 49ers49ers4-0 | 91% | 51% | 30% | 13% | 12.1 | |
| Seattle SeahawksSeahawks3-1 | 86% | 40% | 20% | 14% | 11.6 | |
| Chicago BearsBears3-1 | 68% | 20% | 7% | 4% | 10.3 | |
| Los Angeles RamsRams2-2 | 56% | 9% | 3% | 3% | 9.6 | |
| Atlanta FalconsFalcons2-2 | 51% | 44% | 2% | 2% | 8.6 | |
| New York GiantsGiants3-1 | 47% | 38% | 2% | 1% | 8.9 | |
| Carolina PanthersPanthers2-2 | 45% | 39% | 1% | 1% | 8.2 | |
| Philadelphia EaglesEagles2-2 | 41% | 33% | 1% | 1% | 8.6 | |
| Detroit LionsLions2-2 | 37% | 9% | 1% | 1% | 8.8 | |
| Dallas CowboysCowboys2-2 | 34% | 24% | 1% | 1% | 8.3 | |
| Green Bay PackersPackers2-2 | 22% | 3% | <1% | <1% | 7.8 | |
| New Orleans SaintsSaints1-3 | 14% | 11% | <1% | <1% | 6.5 | |
| Washington CommandersCommanders1-3 | 8% | 5% | <1% | <1% | 6.1 | |
| Tampa Bay BuccaneersBuccaneers0-4 | 6% | 6% | 0% | <1% | 5.1 | |
| Arizona CardinalsCardinals1-3 | 4% | <1% | <1% | <1% | 5.9 |
Playoffs: make the playoffs. Division: win the division. No. 1 seed: finish first in the conference, with a first-round bye. Super Bowl: win it. Wins: average wins at the end of the regular season.
How it works
Each simulation plays every remaining game with the model's probabilities, applies the NFL tiebreakers to decide division winners and wild cards, and then plays the playoffs through the Super Bowl.
Each column is the share of simulations in which that outcome happens. 100% doesn't mean a spot is mathematically clinched: it means it happened in every simulation.