Chicago Bears at Atlanta Falcons
Sunday, October 18, 1:00 PM. Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta.
Bears
1:00 PM
Falcons
The model's pick
The pick is published during game week.
Keys
Keys are published on the Thursday of game week.
Starting quarterbacks
No starting quarterback data.
Injury report
Chicago Bears
- QuestionableCam LewisHip - Questionable for Week 5 at Green Bay
- QuestionableDontae ManningUndisclosed - Questionable for Week 5 at Green Bay
- QuestionableGervarrius OwensUndisclosed - Questionable for Week 5 at Green Bay
- QuestionableKenechukwu EziomumeUndisclosed - Questionable for Week 5 at Green Bay
- QuestionableKyle MonangaiThumb - Questionable for Week 5 at Green Bay
- QuestionableKyron HudsonUndisclosed - Questionable for Week 5 at Green Bay
- QuestionableRicky StrombergUndisclosed - Questionable for Week 5 at Green Bay
- QuestionableTy SummersFoot - Questionable for Week 5 at Green Bay
Long-term absences (16)
- SidelinedAnthony Johnson Jr.Undisclosed - Out for Week 5 at Green Bay. Expected Return - Week 6
- I.L.Braxton JonesI.L. - Knee
- I.L.Brittain BrownI.L. - Undisclosed
- SidelinedCaleb WilliamsHamstring - Out for Week 5 at Green Bay. Expected Return - Week 6
- I.L.Coby BryantI.L. - Knee
- I.L.Dallis FlowersI.L. - Leg
- UndisclosedDrew DalmanRetired
- I.L.Hayden LargeI.L. - Undisclosed
- I.L.Jonathan GarvinI.L. - Undisclosed
- PUP listKyler GordonCalf - Physically Unable to Perform. Expected Return - Week 5
- I.L.Nephi SewellI.L. - Concussion
- I.L.Nikola KalinicI.L. - Knee
- PUP listNoah SewellAchilles - Physically Unable to Perform. Expected Return - Week 5
- I.L.Ruben Hyppolite III.L. - Shoulder
- PUP listShemar TurnerKnee - ACL - Physically Unable to Perform. Expected Return - Week 5
- I.L.Tony Fields III.L. - Undisclosed
Atlanta Falcons
- QuestionableJake MatthewsGroin - Questionable for Week 5 vs. Baltimore
- QuestionableJamal AgnewUndisclosed - Questionable for Week 5 vs. Baltimore
- QuestionableKevin KingUndisclosed - Questionable for Week 5 vs. Baltimore
- QuestionableMalik VerdonUndisclosed - Questionable for Week 5 vs. Baltimore
- QuestionableTroy AndersenKnee - Questionable for Week 5 vs. Baltimore
- QuestionableTyrone Wheatley Jr.Undisclosed - Questionable for Week 5 vs. Baltimore
Long-term absences (15)
- NFI listAnterio ThompsonUndisclosed - NFI-R for Week 5 vs. Baltimore
- I.L.Beaux CollinsI.L. - Undisclosed
- I.L.Cameron WilliamsI.L. - Ankle
- SidelinedCooper RushCoach's Decision - Inactive for Week 4 at New Orleans
- PUP listDeAngelo MaloneUndisclosed - Physically Unable to Perform
- SidelinedEthan OnianwaCoach's Decision - Inactive for Week 4 at New Orleans
- SidelinedJack StrandCoach's Decision - Inactive for Week 4 at New Orleans
- I.L.Jalon WalkerI.L. - Knee - ACL
- SidelinedJared IveyCoach's Decision - Inactive for Week 4 at New Orleans
- I.L.JD BertrandI.L. - Undisclosed
- LegKaleb McGaryRetired
- SidelinedMalcom DeWalt IVCoach's Decision - Inactive for Week 4 at New Orleans
- SidelinedRobert LongerbeamCoach's Decision - Inactive for Week 4 at New Orleans
- PUP listStorm NortonFoot - Physically Unable to Perform
- I.L.Trey SermonI.L. - Undisclosed
The two teams
| Bears | Falcons | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 3-1 | 2-2 |
| Home | 2-1 | 0-1 |
| Away | 1-0 | 2-1 |
| Points per game | 28 | 24 |
| Points allowed per game | 16.3 | 23 |
| Streak | Won 2 | Won 2 |
| Division rank | 2nd in the NFC North | 2nd in the NFC South |
How the pick is made
The model starts from each team's Elo rating and adds home-field advantage, rest and the status of the starting quarterback on the injury report. The difference gives the win probability and the projected score; the pick against the spread compares that margin with the market line.
Method and track record