Indianapolis Colts at Pittsburgh Steelers
Sunday, October 11, 1:00 PM. Acrisure Stadium, Pittsburgh.
Colts
1:00 PM
Steelers
Win probability
The model's pick
- Pick
- Steelers 59%
- Against the spread
- Steelers +5.5
- Projected score
- Colts 21, Steelers 24
- Line
- Colts −5.5
- Total
- 44.5 points
- Model margin
- Steelers by 2.5
Pick computed Wednesday, October 7, 6:50 PM.
Keys
- The model picks the Steelers to win with a 59% probability, compared with 41% for the Colts, at Acrisure Stadium.
- Against the spread, the model leans toward the Steelers, even though the Colts are favored by 5.5 points.
- Both teams enter at 2-2: the Colts bring a two-game winning streak, while the Steelers are coming off a 24-27 loss to the Browns.
- The model projects a 24-21 score in favor of the Steelers, who are 2-0 at home this season.
Starting quarterbacks
- Daniel Jones no injury designation
- Aaron Rodgers no injury designation
Injury report
Indianapolis Colts
- QuestionableChris LammonsFoot - Questionable for Week 5 at Pittsburgh
- QuestionableJack WilsonUndisclosed - Questionable for Week 5 at Pittsburgh
- QuestionableJacob PhillipsBiceps - Questionable for Week 5 at Pittsburgh
- QuestionableKeenan AllenGroin - Questionable for Week 5 at Pittsburgh
- QuestionableMike HiltonShoulder - Questionable for Week 5 at Pittsburgh
- QuestionableSean McKeonUndisclosed - Questionable for Week 5 at Pittsburgh
Long-term absences (8)
- I.L.Alec PierceI.L. - Heel
- SidelinedArden KeyHamstring - Out for Week 5 at Pittsburgh. Expected Return - Week 6
- I.L.Cameron MitchellI.L. - Undisclosed
- I.L.Carson TowtI.L. - Undisclosed
- I.L.D.J. MontgomeryI.L. - Abdomen
- I.L.Micheal ClemonsI.L. - Toe
- UndisclosedReuben Lowery IIIRetired
- I.L.Will MalloryI.L. - Thumb
Pittsburgh Steelers
- QuestionableIsrael MukuamuUndisclosed - Questionable for Week 5 vs. Indianapolis
- QuestionableJacob SladeUndisclosed - Questionable for Week 5 vs. Indianapolis
- QuestionableJamel DeanAnkle - Questionable for Week 5 vs. Indianapolis
- QuestionableLorenzo ThompsonUndisclosed - Questionable for Week 5 vs. Indianapolis
- QuestionableMontana LemoniousCraigLower Body - Questionable for Week 5 vs. Indianapolis
Long-term absences (17)
- UndisclosedAdam ThielenRetired
- I.L.Cole BurgessI.L. - Undisclosed
- I.L.Daequan HardyI.L. - Undisclosed
- I.L.Derrick HarmonI.L. - Foot
- I.L.DeShon ElliottI.L. - Undisclosed
- PUP listDonte KentUndisclosed - Physically Unable to Perform. Expected Return - Week 5
- SidelinedDrew AllarCoach's Decision - Inactive for Week 4 at Cleveland
- SidelinedEli HeidenreichCoach's Decision - Inactive for Week 4 at Cleveland
- SidelinedGabriel RubioCoach's Decision - Inactive for Week 4 at Cleveland
- I.L.Gennings DunkerI.L. - Knee
- I.L.Jack DriscollI.L. - Undisclosed
- SidelinedKevin Jobity Jr.Coach's Decision - Inactive for Week 4 at Cleveland
- I.L.Logan LeeI.L. - Undisclosed
- SidelinedMax HurlemanUndisclosed - Out for Week 5 vs. Indianapolis. Expected Return - Week 6
- ToeRico DowdleInactive for Week 4 at Cleveland
- UndisclosedRobert WoodsRetired
- SidelinedWill HowardCoach's Decision - Inactive for Week 4 at Cleveland
The two teams
| Colts | Steelers | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 2-2 | 2-2 |
| Home | 1-1 | 2-0 |
| Away | 1-1 | 0-2 |
| Points per game | 25.5 | 19.3 |
| Points allowed per game | 26 | 21.8 |
| Streak | Won 2 | Lost 1 |
| Division rank | 2nd in the AFC South | 3rd in the AFC North |
| Elo | 1,486 | 1,504 |
How the pick is made
The model starts from each team's Elo rating and adds home-field advantage, rest and the status of the starting quarterback on the injury report. The difference gives the win probability and the projected score; the pick against the spread compares that margin with the market line.
Method and track record