Houston Texans at Indianapolis Colts
Sunday, September 27, 1:00 PM. Lucas Oil Stadium, Indianapolis.
17
Final
19
Texans 17, Colts 19
The model's pick
The pick is published during game week.
Starting quarterbacks
No starting quarterback data.
Injury report
Houston Texans
- QuestionableAzeez Al-ShaairGroin - Questionable for Week 5 at Tennessee
- QuestionableJaden CrumedyShoulder - Questionable for Week 5 at Tennessee
- QuestionableJaylin SmithHamstring - Questionable for Week 5 at Tennessee
- QuestionableJimmie WardFoot - Questionable for Week 5 at Tennessee
- QuestionableKurt HinishUndisclosed - Questionable for Week 5 at Tennessee
- QuestionableKyonte HamiltonUndisclosed - Questionable for Week 5 at Tennessee
Long-term absences (16)
- I.L.Ali GayeI.L. - Knee
- I.L.Braden SmithI.L. - Foot
- I.L.British BrooksI.L. - Hamstring
- PersonalCasey ToohillRetired
- I.L.Dylan HortonI.L. - Achilles
- PUP listE.J. SpeedQuadriceps - Physically Unable to Perform
- I.L.Graham MertzI.L. - Knee - ACL
- I.L.Jake HummelI.L. - Groin
- I.L.Jayden HigginsI.L. - Knee - ACL
- I.L.K.C. OssaiI.L. - Undisclosed
- I.L.Kayden McDonaldI.L. - Ankle
- PUP listM.J. StewartKnee - Physically Unable to Perform. Expected Return - Week 5
- I.L.Nathaniel DellI.L. - Knee - ACL + MCL
- SidelinedNoah WhittingtonQuadriceps - Out for Week 5 at Tennessee. Expected Return - Week 9
- I.L.Sam HagenI.L. - Undisclosed
- I.L.Solomon ByrdI.L. - Ankle
Indianapolis Colts
- QuestionableChris LammonsFoot - Questionable for Week 5 at Pittsburgh
- QuestionableJack WilsonUndisclosed - Questionable for Week 5 at Pittsburgh
- QuestionableJacob PhillipsBiceps - Questionable for Week 5 at Pittsburgh
- QuestionableKeenan AllenGroin - Questionable for Week 5 at Pittsburgh
- QuestionableMike HiltonShoulder - Questionable for Week 5 at Pittsburgh
- QuestionableSean McKeonUndisclosed - Questionable for Week 5 at Pittsburgh
Long-term absences (8)
- I.L.Alec PierceI.L. - Heel
- SidelinedArden KeyHamstring - Out for Week 5 at Pittsburgh. Expected Return - Week 6
- I.L.Cameron MitchellI.L. - Undisclosed
- I.L.Carson TowtI.L. - Undisclosed
- I.L.D.J. MontgomeryI.L. - Abdomen
- I.L.Micheal ClemonsI.L. - Toe
- UndisclosedReuben Lowery IIIRetired
- I.L.Will MalloryI.L. - Thumb
The two teams
| Texans | Colts | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 0-4 | 2-2 |
| Home | 0-3 | 1-1 |
| Away | 0-1 | 1-1 |
| Points per game | 21 | 25.5 |
| Points allowed per game | 27.3 | 26 |
| Streak | Lost 4 | Won 2 |
| Division rank | 3rd in the AFC South | 2nd in the AFC South |
How the pick is made
The model starts from each team's Elo rating and adds home-field advantage, rest and the status of the starting quarterback on the injury report. The difference gives the win probability and the projected score; the pick against the spread compares that margin with the market line.
Method and track record