Indianapolis Colts at Kansas City Chiefs
Sunday, September 20, 8:20 PM. Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City.
30
Final in overtime
33
Colts 30, Chiefs 33
The model's pick
The pick is published during game week.
Starting quarterbacks
No starting quarterback data.
Injury report
Indianapolis Colts
- QuestionableChris LammonsFoot - Questionable for Week 5 at Pittsburgh
- QuestionableJack WilsonUndisclosed - Questionable for Week 5 at Pittsburgh
- QuestionableJacob PhillipsBiceps - Questionable for Week 5 at Pittsburgh
- QuestionableKeenan AllenGroin - Questionable for Week 5 at Pittsburgh
- QuestionableMike HiltonShoulder - Questionable for Week 5 at Pittsburgh
- QuestionableSean McKeonUndisclosed - Questionable for Week 5 at Pittsburgh
Long-term absences (8)
- I.L.Alec PierceI.L. - Heel
- SidelinedArden KeyHamstring - Out for Week 5 at Pittsburgh. Expected Return - Week 6
- I.L.Cameron MitchellI.L. - Undisclosed
- I.L.Carson TowtI.L. - Undisclosed
- I.L.D.J. MontgomeryI.L. - Abdomen
- I.L.Micheal ClemonsI.L. - Toe
- UndisclosedReuben Lowery IIIRetired
- I.L.Will MalloryI.L. - Thumb
Kansas City Chiefs
- QuestionableC.J. HansonUndisclosed - Questionable for Week 6 vs. L.A. Chargers
- QuestionableChris OladokunUndisclosed - Questionable for Week 6 vs. L.A. Chargers
- QuestionableDeon BushAchilles - Questionable for Week 6 vs. L.A. Chargers
- QuestionableE.J. SmithUndisclosed - Questionable for Week 6 vs. L.A. Chargers
- QuestionableJosh SimmonsBack - Questionable for Week 6 vs. L.A. Chargers
- QuestionableRashee RiceHamstring - Questionable for Week 6 vs. L.A. Chargers
Long-term absences (8)
- I.L.Cooper McDonaldI.L. - Knee
- I.L.Ethan DownsI.L. - Knee - ACL
- I.L.Jeff CaldwellI.L. - Knee
- I.L.Jimmy HolidayI.L. - Undisclosed
- I.L.John Michael GyllenborgI.L. - Knee
- I.L.Matt WaletzkoI.L. - Undisclosed
- PUP listOmarr NormanLottKnee - ACL - Physically Unable to Perform. Expected Return - Week 6
- SidelinedTyquan ThorntonAnkle - Out for Week 6 vs. L.A. Chargers
The two teams
| Colts | Chiefs | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 2-2 | 4-0 |
| Home | 1-1 | 2-0 |
| Away | 1-1 | 2-0 |
| Points per game | 25.5 | 29.5 |
| Points allowed per game | 26 | 19.3 |
| Streak | Won 2 | Won 4 |
| Division rank | 2nd in the AFC South | 1st in the AFC West |
How the pick is made
The model starts from each team's Elo rating and adds home-field advantage, rest and the status of the starting quarterback on the injury report. The difference gives the win probability and the projected score; the pick against the spread compares that margin with the market line.
Method and track record