Atlanta Falcons at Pittsburgh Steelers
Sunday, September 13, 1:00 PM. Acrisure Stadium, Pittsburgh.
13
Final
20
Falcons 13, Steelers 20
The model's pick
The pick is published during game week.
Starting quarterbacks
No starting quarterback data.
Injury report
Atlanta Falcons
- QuestionableJake MatthewsGroin - Questionable for Week 5 vs. Baltimore
- QuestionableJamal AgnewUndisclosed - Questionable for Week 5 vs. Baltimore
- QuestionableKevin KingUndisclosed - Questionable for Week 5 vs. Baltimore
- QuestionableMalik VerdonUndisclosed - Questionable for Week 5 vs. Baltimore
- QuestionableTroy AndersenKnee - Questionable for Week 5 vs. Baltimore
- QuestionableTyrone Wheatley Jr.Undisclosed - Questionable for Week 5 vs. Baltimore
Long-term absences (15)
- NFI listAnterio ThompsonUndisclosed - NFI-R for Week 5 vs. Baltimore
- I.L.Beaux CollinsI.L. - Undisclosed
- I.L.Cameron WilliamsI.L. - Ankle
- SidelinedCooper RushCoach's Decision - Inactive for Week 4 at New Orleans
- PUP listDeAngelo MaloneUndisclosed - Physically Unable to Perform
- SidelinedEthan OnianwaCoach's Decision - Inactive for Week 4 at New Orleans
- SidelinedJack StrandCoach's Decision - Inactive for Week 4 at New Orleans
- I.L.Jalon WalkerI.L. - Knee - ACL
- SidelinedJared IveyCoach's Decision - Inactive for Week 4 at New Orleans
- I.L.JD BertrandI.L. - Undisclosed
- LegKaleb McGaryRetired
- SidelinedMalcom DeWalt IVCoach's Decision - Inactive for Week 4 at New Orleans
- SidelinedRobert LongerbeamCoach's Decision - Inactive for Week 4 at New Orleans
- PUP listStorm NortonFoot - Physically Unable to Perform
- I.L.Trey SermonI.L. - Undisclosed
Pittsburgh Steelers
- QuestionableIsrael MukuamuUndisclosed - Questionable for Week 5 vs. Indianapolis
- QuestionableJacob SladeUndisclosed - Questionable for Week 5 vs. Indianapolis
- QuestionableJamel DeanAnkle - Questionable for Week 5 vs. Indianapolis
- QuestionableLorenzo ThompsonUndisclosed - Questionable for Week 5 vs. Indianapolis
- QuestionableMontana LemoniousCraigLower Body - Questionable for Week 5 vs. Indianapolis
Long-term absences (17)
- UndisclosedAdam ThielenRetired
- I.L.Cole BurgessI.L. - Undisclosed
- I.L.Daequan HardyI.L. - Undisclosed
- I.L.Derrick HarmonI.L. - Foot
- I.L.DeShon ElliottI.L. - Undisclosed
- PUP listDonte KentUndisclosed - Physically Unable to Perform. Expected Return - Week 5
- SidelinedDrew AllarCoach's Decision - Inactive for Week 4 at Cleveland
- SidelinedEli HeidenreichCoach's Decision - Inactive for Week 4 at Cleveland
- SidelinedGabriel RubioCoach's Decision - Inactive for Week 4 at Cleveland
- I.L.Gennings DunkerI.L. - Knee
- I.L.Jack DriscollI.L. - Undisclosed
- SidelinedKevin Jobity Jr.Coach's Decision - Inactive for Week 4 at Cleveland
- I.L.Logan LeeI.L. - Undisclosed
- SidelinedMax HurlemanUndisclosed - Out for Week 5 vs. Indianapolis. Expected Return - Week 6
- ToeRico DowdleInactive for Week 4 at Cleveland
- UndisclosedRobert WoodsRetired
- SidelinedWill HowardCoach's Decision - Inactive for Week 4 at Cleveland
The two teams
| Falcons | Steelers | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 2-2 | 2-2 |
| Home | 0-1 | 2-0 |
| Away | 2-1 | 0-2 |
| Points per game | 24 | 19.3 |
| Points allowed per game | 23 | 21.8 |
| Streak | Won 2 | Lost 1 |
| Division rank | 2nd in the NFC South | 3rd in the AFC North |
How the pick is made
The model starts from each team's Elo rating and adds home-field advantage, rest and the status of the starting quarterback on the injury report. The difference gives the win probability and the projected score; the pick against the spread compares that margin with the market line.
Method and track record