Buffalo Bills at Miami Dolphins
Sunday, January 3, 1:00 PM. Hard Rock Stadium, Miami Gardens.
Bills
1:00 PM
Dolphins
The model's pick
The pick is published during game week.
Keys
Keys are published on the Thursday of game week.
Starting quarterbacks
No starting quarterback data.
Injury report
Buffalo Bills
- QuestionableChristian BenfordToe - Questionable for Week 5 at L.A. Rams
- QuestionableDee AlfordAnkle - Questionable for Week 5 at L.A. Rams
- QuestionableDemetrius Flannigan-FowlesUndisclosed - Questionable for Week 5 at L.A. Rams
- QuestionableDJ MooreShoulder - Questionable for Week 5 at L.A. Rams
- QuestionableEd OliverKnee - Questionable for Week 5 at L.A. Rams
- QuestionableGrant DuBoseShoulder - Questionable for Week 5 at L.A. Rams
- QuestionableJalen VirgilUndisclosed - Questionable for Week 5 at L.A. Rams
- QuestionableJordan PhillipsAnkle - Questionable for Week 5 at L.A. Rams
- QuestionableJordan PoyerHamstring - Questionable for Week 5 at L.A. Rams
- QuestionableT.J. SandersAppendix - Questionable for Week 5 at L.A. Rams
Long-term absences (4)
- NFI listDorian StrongNeck - NFI-R for Week 5 at L.A. Rams
- I.L.Jordan HancockI.L. - Hamstring
- PUP listTyrell ShaversKnee - ACL - Physically Unable to Perform. Expected Return - Week 5
- I.L.Zane DurantI.L. - Undisclosed
Miami Dolphins
- QuestionableBen SimsUndisclosed - Questionable for Week 5 vs. Cincinnati
- QuestionableCaleb DouglasAnkle - Questionable for Week 5 vs. Cincinnati
- QuestionableCarter WarrenUndisclosed - Questionable for Week 5 vs. Cincinnati
- QuestionableDante Trader Jr.Knee - Questionable for Week 5 vs. Cincinnati
- QuestionableEthan RobinsonUndisclosed - Questionable for Week 5 vs. Cincinnati
- QuestionableJackson WoodardAnkle - Questionable for Week 5 vs. Cincinnati
- QuestionableJamaree SalyerKnee - Questionable for Week 5 vs. Cincinnati
- QuestionableOmar BrownUndisclosed - Questionable for Week 5 vs. Cincinnati
- QuestionableRobert Beal Jr.Hamstring - Questionable for Week 5 vs. Cincinnati
- QuestionableZane GonzalezUndisclosed - Questionable for Week 5 vs. Cincinnati
Long-term absences (10)
- I.L.Cole TurnerI.L. - Undisclosed
- PUP listDarrell Baker Jr.Undisclosed - Physically Unable to Perform. Expected Return - Week 5
- I.L.Kenneth GrantI.L. - Leg
- I.L.Kyle LouisI.L. - Knee
- SidelinedReese TaylorQuadriceps - Out for Week 5 vs. Cincinnati. Expected Return - Week 7
- I.L.Rene KongaI.L. - Undisclosed
- I.L.Ronnie Harrison Jr.I.L. - Hamstring
- PUP listStorm DuckKnee - Physically Unable to Perform. Expected Return - Week 5
- I.L.Trey MooreI.L. - Ankle
- SidelinedTyreek HillKnee - ACL - Out for Week 5 vs. Cincinnati. Expected Return - Week 7
The two teams
| Bills | Dolphins | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 3-1 | 0-4 |
| Home | 2-1 | 0-1 |
| Away | 1-0 | 0-3 |
| Points per game | 31.8 | 11.5 |
| Points allowed per game | 26.8 | 25.3 |
| Streak | Lost 1 | Lost 4 |
| Division rank | 1st in the AFC East | 4th in the AFC East |
How the pick is made
The model starts from each team's Elo rating and adds home-field advantage, rest and the status of the starting quarterback on the injury report. The difference gives the win probability and the projected score; the pick against the spread compares that margin with the market line.
Method and track record