Buffalo Bills at Denver Broncos
Friday, December 25, 4:30 PM. Empower Field at Mile High, Denver.
Bills
4:30 PM
Broncos
The model's pick
The pick is published during game week.
Keys
Keys are published on the Thursday of game week.
Starting quarterbacks
No starting quarterback data.
Injury report
Buffalo Bills
- QuestionableChristian BenfordToe - Questionable for Week 5 at L.A. Rams
- QuestionableDee AlfordAnkle - Questionable for Week 5 at L.A. Rams
- QuestionableDemetrius Flannigan-FowlesUndisclosed - Questionable for Week 5 at L.A. Rams
- QuestionableDJ MooreShoulder - Questionable for Week 5 at L.A. Rams
- QuestionableEd OliverKnee - Questionable for Week 5 at L.A. Rams
- QuestionableGrant DuBoseShoulder - Questionable for Week 5 at L.A. Rams
- QuestionableJalen VirgilUndisclosed - Questionable for Week 5 at L.A. Rams
- QuestionableJordan PhillipsAnkle - Questionable for Week 5 at L.A. Rams
- QuestionableJordan PoyerHamstring - Questionable for Week 5 at L.A. Rams
- QuestionableT.J. SandersAppendix - Questionable for Week 5 at L.A. Rams
Long-term absences (4)
- NFI listDorian StrongNeck - NFI-R for Week 5 at L.A. Rams
- I.L.Jordan HancockI.L. - Hamstring
- PUP listTyrell ShaversKnee - ACL - Physically Unable to Perform. Expected Return - Week 5
- I.L.Zane DurantI.L. - Undisclosed
Denver Broncos
- QuestionableBlake CottonHamstring - Questionable for Week 5 at L.A. Chargers
- QuestionableDondrea TillmanHamstring - Questionable for Week 5 at L.A. Chargers
- QuestionableDrew SandersUndisclosed - Questionable for Week 5 at L.A. Chargers
- QuestionableMichael Woods IILeg - Questionable for Week 5 at L.A. Chargers
- QuestionablePat BryantAnkle - Questionable for Week 5 at L.A. Chargers
- QuestionableRiley MossRibs - Questionable for Week 5 at L.A. Chargers
Long-term absences (7)
- I.L.Caleb LohnerI.L. - Lower Body
- I.L.Frank CrumI.L. - Undisclosed
- I.L.Jonah ColemanI.L. - Ankle
- I.L.Levelle BaileyI.L. - Leg
- I.L.Matt HenningsenI.L. - Achilles
- I.L.Michael DeiterI.L. - Quadriceps
- PUP listNick GargiuloKnee - ACL - Physically Unable to Perform. Expected Return - Week 5
The two teams
| Bills | Broncos | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 3-1 | 2-2 |
| Home | 2-1 | 2-0 |
| Away | 1-0 | 0-2 |
| Points per game | 31.8 | 18.5 |
| Points allowed per game | 26.8 | 23.5 |
| Streak | Lost 1 | Lost 1 |
| Division rank | 1st in the AFC East | 3rd in the AFC West |
How the pick is made
The model starts from each team's Elo rating and adds home-field advantage, rest and the status of the starting quarterback on the injury report. The difference gives the win probability and the projected score; the pick against the spread compares that margin with the market line.
Method and track record