New England Patriots at Kansas City Chiefs
Monday, December 21, 8:15 PM. Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City.
Patriots
8:15 PM
Chiefs
The model's pick
The pick is published during game week.
Keys
Keys are published on the Thursday of game week.
Starting quarterbacks
No starting quarterback data.
Injury report
New England Patriots
Nobody on the report.
Kansas City Chiefs
- QuestionableC.J. HansonUndisclosed - Questionable for Week 6 vs. L.A. Chargers
- QuestionableChris OladokunUndisclosed - Questionable for Week 6 vs. L.A. Chargers
- QuestionableDeon BushAchilles - Questionable for Week 6 vs. L.A. Chargers
- QuestionableE.J. SmithUndisclosed - Questionable for Week 6 vs. L.A. Chargers
- QuestionableJosh SimmonsBack - Questionable for Week 6 vs. L.A. Chargers
- QuestionableRashee RiceHamstring - Questionable for Week 6 vs. L.A. Chargers
Long-term absences (8)
- I.L.Cooper McDonaldI.L. - Knee
- I.L.Ethan DownsI.L. - Knee - ACL
- I.L.Jeff CaldwellI.L. - Knee
- I.L.Jimmy HolidayI.L. - Undisclosed
- I.L.John Michael GyllenborgI.L. - Knee
- I.L.Matt WaletzkoI.L. - Undisclosed
- PUP listOmarr NormanLottKnee - ACL - Physically Unable to Perform. Expected Return - Week 6
- SidelinedTyquan ThorntonAnkle - Out for Week 6 vs. L.A. Chargers
The two teams
| Patriots | Chiefs | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 2-2 | 4-0 |
| Home | 1-0 | 2-0 |
| Away | 1-2 | 2-0 |
| Points per game | 16.3 | 29.5 |
| Points allowed per game | 19.3 | 19.3 |
| Streak | Won 1 | Won 4 |
| Division rank | 2nd in the AFC East | 1st in the AFC West |
How the pick is made
The model starts from each team's Elo rating and adds home-field advantage, rest and the status of the starting quarterback on the injury report. The difference gives the win probability and the projected score; the pick against the spread compares that margin with the market line.
Method and track record