Buffalo Bills at Los Angeles Rams
Monday, October 12, 8:15 PM. SoFi Stadium, Inglewood.
Bills
8:15 PM
Rams
Win probability
The model's pick
- Pick
- Rams 52%
- Against the spread
- Bills +3
- Projected score
- Bills 27, Rams 28
- Line
- Rams −3
- Total
- 54.5 points
- Model margin
- Rams by 0.5
Pick computed Wednesday, October 7, 6:50 PM.
Keys
- The model picks the Rams to win with a 52% probability, against 48% for the Bills, in a very close matchup at SoFi Stadium.
- With the Rams favored by 2.5 points, the model leans toward the Bills to cover the spread.
- The Bills arrive at 3-1 with a streak of L1; the Rams are 2-2 after beating the Eagles 24-20.
- The model projects a 28-27 score in favor of the Rams, with the Bills at 84% playoff odds.
Starting quarterbacks
- Josh Allen no injury designation
- Matthew Stafford no injury designation
Injury report
Buffalo Bills
- QuestionableChristian BenfordToe - Questionable for Week 5 at L.A. Rams
- QuestionableDee AlfordAnkle - Questionable for Week 5 at L.A. Rams
- QuestionableDemetrius Flannigan-FowlesUndisclosed - Questionable for Week 5 at L.A. Rams
- QuestionableDJ MooreShoulder - Questionable for Week 5 at L.A. Rams
- QuestionableEd OliverKnee - Questionable for Week 5 at L.A. Rams
- QuestionableGrant DuBoseShoulder - Questionable for Week 5 at L.A. Rams
- QuestionableJalen VirgilUndisclosed - Questionable for Week 5 at L.A. Rams
- QuestionableJordan PhillipsAnkle - Questionable for Week 5 at L.A. Rams
- QuestionableJordan PoyerHamstring - Questionable for Week 5 at L.A. Rams
- QuestionableT.J. SandersAppendix - Questionable for Week 5 at L.A. Rams
Long-term absences (4)
- NFI listDorian StrongNeck - NFI-R for Week 5 at L.A. Rams
- I.L.Jordan HancockI.L. - Hamstring
- PUP listTyrell ShaversKnee - ACL - Physically Unable to Perform. Expected Return - Week 5
- I.L.Zane DurantI.L. - Undisclosed
Los Angeles Rams
- QuestionableAaron DonaldBack - Questionable for Week 5 vs. Buffalo
- QuestionableAlex JohnsonUndisclosed - Questionable for Week 5 vs. Buffalo
- QuestionableAnthony TorresAnkle - Questionable for Week 5 vs. Buffalo
- QuestionableColby ParkinsonShoulder - AC Joint - Questionable for Week 5 vs. Buffalo
- QuestionableDreyden NorwoodUndisclosed - Questionable for Week 5 vs. Buffalo
- QuestionableJaylen WatsonShoulder - Questionable for Week 5 vs. Buffalo
- QuestionableKonata MumpfieldShoulder - Questionable for Week 5 vs. Buffalo
- QuestionableMario WilliamsUndisclosed - Questionable for Week 5 vs. Buffalo
- QuestionableZech McPhearsonUndisclosed - Questionable for Week 5 vs. Buffalo
Long-term absences (9)
- I.L.Daniel RickertI.L. - Knee
- UndisclosedDarious WilliamsRetired
- I.L.Eddie Walls IIII.L. - Undisclosed
- I.L.Justin DedichI.L. - Undisclosed
- I.L.Keagen TrostI.L. - Hamstring
- I.L.Matthew CaldwellI.L. - Undisclosed
- I.L.Myles GarrettI.L. - Knee
- I.L.Ronnie RiversI.L. - Calf
- I.L.Terrance FergusonI.L. - Ankle
The two teams
| Bills | Rams | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 3-1 | 2-2 |
| Home | 2-1 | 1-1 |
| Away | 1-0 | 1-1 |
| Points per game | 31.8 | 21.3 |
| Points allowed per game | 26.8 | 20.8 |
| Streak | Lost 1 | Won 1 |
| Division rank | 1st in the AFC East | 3rd in the NFC West |
| Elo | 1,604 | 1,571 |
How the pick is made
The model starts from each team's Elo rating and adds home-field advantage, rest and the status of the starting quarterback on the injury report. The difference gives the win probability and the projected score; the pick against the spread compares that margin with the market line.
Method and track record