Baltimore Ravens at Atlanta Falcons
Sunday, October 11, 8:20 PM. Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta.
Ravens
8:20 PM
Falcons
Win probability
The model's pick
- Pick
- Falcons 54%
- Against the spread
- Ravens +3.5
- Projected score
- Ravens 21, Falcons 22
- Line
- Falcons −3.5
- Total
- 43.5 points
- Model margin
- Falcons by 1
Pick computed Wednesday, October 7, 6:50 PM.
Keys
- The model picks the Falcons to win with a 54% probability, against 46% for the Ravens, with a projected score of 22-21.
- Against the line, where the Falcons are favored by 3.5 points, the model leans toward the Ravens.
- Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson is listed as Questionable on the injury report with an ankle injury.
- Both teams arrive on a streak of 2 wins: the Falcons are 2-2 and the Ravens 3-1, with 70% playoff odds.
Starting quarterbacks
- Lamar JacksonQuestionable −20 Elo adjustment
- Michael Penix Jr. no injury designation
Injury report
Baltimore Ravens
- QuestionableAndrew VorheesFoot - Questionable for Week 5 at Atlanta
- QuestionableChris MooreAnkle - Questionable for Week 5 at Atlanta
- QuestionableDeonte HartyKnee - Questionable for Week 5 at Atlanta
- QuestionableDurham SmytheAchilles - Questionable for Week 5 at Atlanta
- QuestionableLamar JacksonAnkle - Questionable for Week 5 at Atlanta
- QuestionableMarlon HumphreyCalf - Questionable for Week 5 at Atlanta
- QuestionableReid WillifordUndisclosed - Questionable for Week 5 at Atlanta
- QuestionableRonnie StanleyToe - Questionable for Week 5 at Atlanta
- QuestionableTrey HendricksonFinger - Questionable for Week 5 at Atlanta
Long-term absences (8)
- I.L.Adam RandallI.L. - Undisclosed
- I.L.Bilhal KoneI.L. - Lower Body
- I.L.Danny PinterI.L. - Knee
- I.L.Ethan PocicI.L. - Knee
- I.L.Jahquez RobinsonI.L. - Undisclosed
- I.L.Jovaughn GwynI.L. - Ankle
- I.L.Skylar ThompsonI.L. - Undisclosed
- I.L.T.J. TampaI.L. - Knee
Atlanta Falcons
- QuestionableJake MatthewsGroin - Questionable for Week 5 vs. Baltimore
- QuestionableJamal AgnewUndisclosed - Questionable for Week 5 vs. Baltimore
- QuestionableKevin KingUndisclosed - Questionable for Week 5 vs. Baltimore
- QuestionableMalik VerdonUndisclosed - Questionable for Week 5 vs. Baltimore
- QuestionableTroy AndersenKnee - Questionable for Week 5 vs. Baltimore
- QuestionableTyrone Wheatley Jr.Undisclosed - Questionable for Week 5 vs. Baltimore
Long-term absences (15)
- NFI listAnterio ThompsonUndisclosed - NFI-R for Week 5 vs. Baltimore
- I.L.Beaux CollinsI.L. - Undisclosed
- I.L.Cameron WilliamsI.L. - Ankle
- SidelinedCooper RushCoach's Decision - Inactive for Week 4 at New Orleans
- PUP listDeAngelo MaloneUndisclosed - Physically Unable to Perform
- SidelinedEthan OnianwaCoach's Decision - Inactive for Week 4 at New Orleans
- SidelinedJack StrandCoach's Decision - Inactive for Week 4 at New Orleans
- I.L.Jalon WalkerI.L. - Knee - ACL
- SidelinedJared IveyCoach's Decision - Inactive for Week 4 at New Orleans
- I.L.JD BertrandI.L. - Undisclosed
- LegKaleb McGaryRetired
- SidelinedMalcom DeWalt IVCoach's Decision - Inactive for Week 4 at New Orleans
- SidelinedRobert LongerbeamCoach's Decision - Inactive for Week 4 at New Orleans
- PUP listStorm NortonFoot - Physically Unable to Perform
- I.L.Trey SermonI.L. - Undisclosed
The two teams
| Ravens | Falcons | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 3-1 | 2-2 |
| Home | 1-1 | 0-1 |
| Away | 2-0 | 2-1 |
| Points per game | 29 | 24 |
| Points allowed per game | 24 | 23 |
| Streak | Won 2 | Won 2 |
| Division rank | 2nd in the AFC North | 2nd in the NFC South |
| Elo | 1,546 | 1,506 |
How the pick is made
The model starts from each team's Elo rating and adds home-field advantage, rest and the status of the starting quarterback on the injury report. The difference gives the win probability and the projected score; the pick against the spread compares that margin with the market line.
Method and track record