San Francisco 49ers at Seattle Seahawks
Sunday, October 11, 4:25 PM. Lumen Field, Seattle.
49ers
4:25 PM
Seahawks
Win probability
The model's pick
- Pick
- Seahawks 60%
- Against the spread
- 49ers +3.5
- Projected score
- 49ers 22, Seahawks 25
- Line
- Seahawks −3.5
- Total
- 47.5 points
- Model margin
- Seahawks by 2.9
Pick computed Wednesday, October 7, 6:50 PM.
Keys
- The model leans toward the Seahawks with a 60% win probability to 40% for the 49ers, and projects a score of 25 to 22.
- Against the spread, the model sides with the 49ers: Seattle is favored by 3.5 points, but the model expects a win by 2.9.
- The 49ers arrive 4-0 on a W4 streak, having scored 122 points and allowed 64.
- The Seahawks, at 3-1, are 2-0 at home, and Nick Bosa is listed as Questionable on the 49ers' injury report.
Starting quarterbacks
- Brock Purdy no injury designation
- Sam Darnold no injury designation
Injury report
San Francisco 49ers
- QuestionableIsaiah PrinceKnee - Questionable for Week 5 at Seattle
- QuestionableJames Thompson Jr.Ankle - Questionable for Week 5 at Seattle
- QuestionableKyle JuszczykKnee - Questionable for Week 5 at Seattle
- QuestionableMarques SigleAnkle - Questionable for Week 5 at Seattle
- QuestionableNick BosaCalf - Questionable for Week 5 at Seattle
Long-term absences (16)
- I.L.Alfred CollinsI.L. - Knee
- I.L.Austen PleasantsI.L. - Knee
- PersonalBrandon AiyukDid Not Report
- I.L.Brett TothI.L. - Concussion
- I.L.Christian KirkI.L. - Calf
- I.L.Darrick ForrestI.L. - Undisclosed
- I.L.Demarcus RobinsonI.L. - Ankle
- PUP listIsaac GuerendoPectoral - Physically Unable to Perform. Expected Return - Week 5
- I.L.Jake TongesI.L. - Knee - MCL
- I.L.Mikail KamaraI.L. - Knee
- PUP listMykel WilliamsKnee - ACL - Physically Unable to Perform. Expected Return - Week 5
- I.L.Nate HobbsI.L. - Groin
- I.L.Nick ZakeljI.L. - Undisclosed
- I.L.Nickolas MartinI.L. - Hamstring
- I.L.Ricky PearsallI.L. - Knee - PCL
- I.L.Sam OkuayinonuI.L. - Foot
Seattle Seahawks
- QuestionableAaron SmithUndisclosed - Questionable for Week 5 vs. San Francisco
- QuestionableChazz SurrattCalf - Questionable for Week 5 vs. San Francisco
- QuestionableHarrison BryantUndisclosed - Questionable for Week 5 vs. San Francisco
- QuestionableJohnathan HankinsBack - Questionable for Week 5 vs. San Francisco
- QuestionableJoseph VaughnUndisclosed - Questionable for Week 5 vs. San Francisco
- QuestionableLeonard WilliamsAnkle - Questionable for Week 5 vs. San Francisco
- QuestionablePower EcholsUndisclosed - Questionable for Week 5 vs. San Francisco
- QuestionableShane LemieuxUndisclosed - Questionable for Week 5 vs. San Francisco
- QuestionableShemar Jean-CharlesUndisclosed - Questionable for Week 5 vs. San Francisco
- QuestionableTy OkadaHamstring - Questionable for Week 5 vs. San Francisco
- QuestionableTyrone BrodenUndisclosed - Questionable for Week 5 vs. San Francisco
Long-term absences (8)
- I.L.Anthony BradfordI.L. - Knee
- I.L.Bud ClarkI.L. - Ankle
- I.L.Jadarian PriceI.L. - Chest
- I.L.Jake BoboI.L. - Knee
- I.L.Mason RichmanI.L. - Leg
- I.L.Robbie OuztsI.L. - Neck
- PersonalTerrion ArnoldCommissioner's exempt list for Week 5 vs. San Francisco. Expected Return - Week 6
- PUP listZach CharbonnetKnee - ACL - Physically Unable to Perform. Expected Return - Week 6
The two teams
| 49ers | Seahawks | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 4-0 | 3-1 |
| Home | 3-0 | 2-0 |
| Away | 1-0 | 1-1 |
| Points per game | 30.5 | 26.3 |
| Points allowed per game | 16 | 18.3 |
| Streak | Won 4 | Won 1 |
| Division rank | 1st in the NFC West | 2nd in the NFC West |
| Elo | 1,624 | 1,651 |
How the pick is made
The model starts from each team's Elo rating and adds home-field advantage, rest and the status of the starting quarterback on the injury report. The difference gives the win probability and the projected score; the pick against the spread compares that margin with the market line.
Method and track record