Detroit Lions at Arizona Cardinals
Sunday, October 11, 4:25 PM. State Farm Stadium, Glendale.
Lions
4:25 PM
Cardinals
Win probability
The model's pick
- Pick
- Lions 58%
- Against the spread
- Cardinals +5.5
- Projected score
- Lions 27, Cardinals 25
- Line
- Lions −5.5
- Total
- 51.5 points
- Model margin
- Lions by 2.1
Pick computed Wednesday, October 7, 6:50 PM.
Keys
- The model picks the Lions to win with a 58% probability, compared with 42% for the Cardinals.
- With the Lions favored by 5.5 points, the model leans toward the Cardinals to cover the spread.
- The Cardinals arrive at 1-3 with 3 straight losses, while the Lions are 2-2 after losing their last game.
- The model projects a 27-25 Lions win, and gives Detroit a 37% chance of reaching the playoffs.
Starting quarterbacks
- Jared Goff no injury designation
- Jacoby Brissett no injury designation
Injury report
Detroit Lions
- QuestionableAidan KeanaainaUndisclosed - Questionable for Week 5 at Arizona
- QuestionableBen BartchFoot - Questionable for Week 5 at Arizona
- QuestionableCedrick Wilson Jr.Knee - Questionable for Week 5 at Arizona
- QuestionableDicaprio BootleUndisclosed - Questionable for Week 5 at Arizona
- QuestionableEmmanuel MoseleyIllness - Questionable for Week 5 at Arizona
- QuestionableJamarco JonesAchilles - Questionable for Week 5 at Arizona
- QuestionableKye RobichauxFoot - Questionable for Week 5 at Arizona
- QuestionableLoren StricklandUndisclosed - Questionable for Week 5 at Arizona
- QuestionableLuke DealUndisclosed - Questionable for Week 5 at Arizona
- QuestionableMichael NieseLeg - Questionable for Week 5 at Arizona
- QuestionableRaheem BlackshearUndisclosed - Questionable for Week 5 at Arizona
- QuestionableRock Ya-SinHamstring - Questionable for Week 5 at Arizona
- QuestionableZach CunninghamHamstring - Questionable for Week 5 at Arizona
Long-term absences (12)
- I.L.Avonte MaddoxI.L. - Foot
- PUP listBrian BranchAchilles - Physically Unable to Perform. Expected Return - Week 5
- I.L.Cade MaysI.L. - Wrist
- I.L.Damone ClarkI.L. - Undisclosed
- NFI listGiovanni ManuKnee - NFI-R for Week 5 at Arizona
- I.L.Isiah PachecoI.L. - Back
- I.L.Kendrick LawI.L. - Knee - ACL
- PUP listKerby JosephKnee - Physically Unable to Perform. Expected Return - Week 5
- SidelinedMason MillerUndisclosed - Out for Week 5 at Arizona. Expected Return - Week 5
- I.L.Payton TurnerI.L. - Back
- UndisclosedTeddy BridgewaterRetired
- I.L.Thomas HarperI.L. - Ankle
Arizona Cardinals
- QuestionableAndre BaccelliaNeck - Questionable for Week 5 vs. Detroit
- QuestionableAndrew WingardKnee - Questionable for Week 5 vs. Detroit
- QuestionableBilal NicholsKnee - Questionable for Week 5 vs. Detroit
- QuestionableDadrion TaylorDemersonBack - Questionable for Week 5 vs. Detroit
- QuestionableHunter LongKnee - Questionable for Week 5 vs. Detroit
- QuestionableIsaiah AdamsAnkle - Questionable for Week 5 vs. Detroit
- QuestionableJeremiyah LoveAnkle - Questionable for Week 5 vs. Detroit
- QuestionableJonah WilliamsShoulder - Questionable for Week 5 vs. Detroit
- QuestionableJosh MinkinsUndisclosed - Questionable for Week 5 vs. Detroit
- QuestionableJustin JonesKnee - Questionable for Week 5 vs. Detroit
- QuestionableKenny YeboahHamstring - Questionable for Week 5 vs. Detroit
- QuestionableXavier WeaverHamstring - Questionable for Week 5 vs. Detroit
Long-term absences (11)
- I.L.Chase BisontisI.L. - Knee - MCL
- I.L.James ConnerI.L. - Foot
- I.L.Jameson GeersI.L. - Undisclosed
- I.L.Joey BlountI.L. - Neck
- I.L.Kaleb ProctorI.L. - Knee - Meniscus
- I.L.Kitan CrawfordI.L. - Ankle
- SidelinedParis Johnson Jr.Biceps - Out for Week 5 vs. Detroit
- PUP listTip ReimanAnkle - Physically Unable to Perform. Expected Return - Week 5
- I.L.Trey BensonI.L. - Knee
- I.L.Will JohnsonI.L. - Neck
- I.L.Zach CarterI.L. - Knee
The two teams
| Lions | Cardinals | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 2-2 | 1-3 |
| Home | 2-0 | 0-1 |
| Away | 0-2 | 1-2 |
| Points per game | 29.8 | 21.8 |
| Points allowed per game | 31.8 | 29.3 |
| Streak | Lost 1 | Lost 3 |
| Division rank | 3rd in the NFC North | 4th in the NFC West |
| Elo | 1,514 | 1,416 |
How the pick is made
The model starts from each team's Elo rating and adds home-field advantage, rest and the status of the starting quarterback on the injury report. The difference gives the win probability and the projected score; the pick against the spread compares that margin with the market line.
Method and track record