Denver Broncos at Los Angeles Chargers
Sunday, October 11, 4:05 PM. SoFi Stadium, Inglewood.
Broncos
4:05 PM
Chargers
Win probability
The model's pick
- Pick
- Broncos 62%
- Against the spread
- Chargers +5.5
- Projected score
- Broncos 23, Chargers 20
- Line
- Broncos −5.5
- Total
- 43.5 points
- Model margin
- Broncos by 3.3
Pick computed Wednesday, October 7, 6:50 PM.
Keys
- The model picks the Broncos with a 62% win probability, compared with 38% for the Chargers.
- With the Broncos favored by 5.5 points on the line, the model sees the Chargers as the side to cover the spread.
- The Chargers arrive 0-4 on an L4 streak, with 67 points scored and 106 allowed.
- The Broncos, at 2-2 with a 60% playoff probability, are projected to win 23-20.
Starting quarterbacks
- Bo Nix no injury designation
- Justin Herbert no injury designation
Injury report
Denver Broncos
- QuestionableBlake CottonHamstring - Questionable for Week 5 at L.A. Chargers
- QuestionableDondrea TillmanHamstring - Questionable for Week 5 at L.A. Chargers
- QuestionableDrew SandersUndisclosed - Questionable for Week 5 at L.A. Chargers
- QuestionableMichael Woods IILeg - Questionable for Week 5 at L.A. Chargers
- QuestionablePat BryantAnkle - Questionable for Week 5 at L.A. Chargers
- QuestionableRiley MossRibs - Questionable for Week 5 at L.A. Chargers
Long-term absences (7)
- I.L.Caleb LohnerI.L. - Lower Body
- I.L.Frank CrumI.L. - Undisclosed
- I.L.Jonah ColemanI.L. - Ankle
- I.L.Levelle BaileyI.L. - Leg
- I.L.Matt HenningsenI.L. - Achilles
- I.L.Michael DeiterI.L. - Quadriceps
- PUP listNick GargiuloKnee - ACL - Physically Unable to Perform. Expected Return - Week 5
Los Angeles Chargers
- QuestionableBrenen ThompsonQuadriceps - Questionable for Week 5 vs. Denver
- QuestionableCharlie KolarForearm - Questionable for Week 5 vs. Denver
- QuestionableDalevon CampbellLeg - Questionable for Week 5 vs. Denver
- QuestionableDalvin TomlinsonHamstring - Questionable for Week 5 vs. Denver
- QuestionableDez FitzpatrickUndisclosed - Questionable for Week 5 vs. Denver
- QuestionableDonte JacksonHamstring - Questionable for Week 5 vs. Denver
- QuestionableJoe AltNeck - Questionable for Week 5 vs. Denver
- QuestionableKayode AwosikaLower Leg - Questionable for Week 5 vs. Denver
- QuestionableKyle KennardUndisclosed - Questionable for Week 5 vs. Denver
- QuestionableLadd McConkeyFoot - Questionable for Week 5 vs. Denver
- QuestionableLuke GrimmUndisclosed - Questionable for Week 5 vs. Denver
- QuestionableSincere BrownUndisclosed - Questionable for Week 5 vs. Denver
- QuestionableTrevor PenningConcussion - Questionable for Week 5 vs. Denver
- QuestionableWill DisslyUndisclosed - Questionable for Week 5 vs. Denver
Long-term absences (10)
- UndisclosedBradley BozemanRetired
- I.L.Branson TaylorI.L. - Undisclosed
- I.L.David NjokuI.L. - Lower Leg
- I.L.Denzel PerrymanI.L. - Undisclosed
- NFI listIsaiah WorldKnee - NFI-R for Week 5 vs. Denver
- I.L.KeAndre LambertSmithI.L. - Hamstring
- UndisclosedMike WilliamsRoster Exemption
- SidelinedRashawn SlaterAnkle - Out for Week 5 vs. Denver. Expected Return - Week 8
- I.L.Scott MatlockI.L. - Undisclosed
- I.L.Tyler BiadaszI.L. - Knee
The two teams
| Broncos | Chargers | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 2-2 | 0-4 |
| Home | 2-0 | 0-2 |
| Away | 0-2 | 0-2 |
| Points per game | 18.5 | 16.8 |
| Points allowed per game | 23.5 | 26.5 |
| Streak | Lost 1 | Lost 4 |
| Division rank | 3rd in the AFC West | 4th in the AFC West |
| Elo | 1,561 | 1,433 |
How the pick is made
The model starts from each team's Elo rating and adds home-field advantage, rest and the status of the starting quarterback on the injury report. The difference gives the win probability and the projected score; the pick against the spread compares that margin with the market line.
Method and track record