New York Giants at Washington Commanders
Sunday, October 11, 1:00 PM. Northwest Stadium, Landover.
Giants
1:00 PM
Commanders
Win probability
The model's pick
- Pick
- Giants 51%
- Against the spread
- Giants +2.5
- Projected score
- Giants 22, Commanders 21
- Line
- Commanders −2.5
- Total
- 42.5 points
- Model margin
- Giants by 0.4
Pick computed Wednesday, October 7, 6:50 PM.
Keys
- The model leans toward the Giants with a 51% chance to win, against 49% for the Commanders, in a very close matchup.
- Against the spread, with the Commanders favored by 2.5 points, the model prefers the Giants.
- Jayden Daniels is listed as Questionable with an elbow injury on the Commanders' report, whose listed quarterback is Athan Kaliakmanis.
- The Giants arrive at 3-1 with a 2-game winning streak while the Commanders are 1-3, and the model projects a 22-21 Giants win.
Starting quarterbacks
- Jameis Winston no injury designation
- Athan Kaliakmanis no injury designation
Injury report
New York Giants
Nobody on the report.
Washington Commanders
- QuestionableCharles OmenihuGroin - Questionable for Week 5 vs. N.Y. Giants
- QuestionableCurtis JacobsUndisclosed - Questionable for Week 5 vs. N.Y. Giants
- QuestionableJacoby JonesUndisclosed - Questionable for Week 5 vs. N.Y. Giants
- QuestionableJayden DanielsElbow - Questionable for Week 5 vs. N.Y. Giants
- QuestionableJeremy ReavesFinger - Questionable for Week 5 vs. N.Y. Giants
- QuestionableLogan ThomasKnee
- QuestionableMarcus MariotaKnee - MCL - Questionable for Week 5 vs. N.Y. Giants
- QuestionableMarvin Jones Jr.Undisclosed - Questionable for Week 5 vs. N.Y. Giants
- QuestionableNick CrossIllness - Questionable for Week 5 vs. N.Y. Giants
- QuestionableQuentin MooreUndisclosed - Questionable for Week 5 vs. N.Y. Giants
- QuestionableRachaad WhiteShoulder - Questionable for Week 5 vs. N.Y. Giants
- QuestionableRiver CracraftUndisclosed - Questionable for Week 5 vs. N.Y. Giants
- QuestionableTerry McLaurinHamstring - Questionable for Week 5 vs. N.Y. Giants
- QuestionableTyler CooperUndisclosed - Questionable for Week 5 vs. N.Y. Giants
- QuestionableTyler OwensHamstring - Questionable for Week 5 vs. N.Y. Giants
Long-term absences (10)
- PersonalAhkello WitherspoonRetired
- SidelinedChase YoungKnee
- PUP listDeatrich Wise Jr.Quadriceps - Physically Unable to Perform. Expected Return - Week 5
- SidelinedJaylin LaneAnkle - Out for Week 5 vs. N.Y. Giants
- I.L.Jeremy McNicholsI.L. - Quadriceps
- I.L.Jordan MageeI.L. - Hamstring
- I.L.Laremy TunsilI.L. - Triceps
- I.L.Leo ChenalI.L. - Neck
- PersonalNick BelloreRetired
- I.L.Trey AmosI.L. - Ankle
The two teams
| Giants | Commanders | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 3-1 | 1-3 |
| Home | 3-0 | 1-1 |
| Away | 0-1 | 0-2 |
| Points per game | 20.5 | 22 |
| Points allowed per game | 19.8 | 30.5 |
| Streak | Won 2 | Lost 1 |
| Division rank | 1st in the NFC East | 4th in the NFC East |
| Elo | 1,482 | 1,428 |
How the pick is made
The model starts from each team's Elo rating and adds home-field advantage, rest and the status of the starting quarterback on the injury report. The difference gives the win probability and the projected score; the pick against the spread compares that margin with the market line.
Method and track record