Las Vegas Raiders at New England Patriots
Sunday, October 11, 1:00 PM. Gillette Stadium, Foxborough.
Raiders
1:00 PM
Patriots
Win probability
The model's pick
- Pick
- Patriots 70%
- Against the spread
- Patriots −3.5
- Projected score
- Raiders 19, Patriots 25
- Line
- Patriots −3.5
- Total
- 43.5 points
- Model margin
- Patriots by 5.8
Pick computed Wednesday, October 7, 6:50 PM.
Keys
- The model picks the Patriots with a 70% chance to beat the Raiders in Foxborough.
- With the Patriots favored by 3.5 points, the model also leans toward the Patriots to cover the spread.
- The Raiders arrive at 3-1 with 115 points scored, but they lost 27-30 to the Chiefs in their latest game.
- The Patriots list six Questionable players on the injury report, including Christian Barmore and Christian Gonzalez; the model projects a 25-19 final.
Starting quarterbacks
- Kirk Cousins no injury designation
- Drake Maye no injury designation
Injury report
Las Vegas Raiders
Nobody on the report.
New England Patriots
Nobody on the report.
The two teams
| Raiders | Patriots | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 3-1 | 2-2 |
| Home | 1-1 | 1-0 |
| Away | 2-0 | 1-2 |
| Points per game | 28.8 | 16.3 |
| Points allowed per game | 21 | 19.3 |
| Streak | Lost 1 | Won 1 |
| Division rank | 2nd in the AFC West | 2nd in the AFC East |
| Elo | 1,477 | 1,578 |
How the pick is made
The model starts from each team's Elo rating and adds home-field advantage, rest and the status of the starting quarterback on the injury report. The difference gives the win probability and the projected score; the pick against the spread compares that margin with the market line.
Method and track record