Cincinnati Bengals at Miami Dolphins
Sunday, October 11, 1:00 PM. Hard Rock Stadium, Miami Gardens.
Bengals
1:00 PM
Dolphins
Win probability
The model's pick
- Pick
- Bengals 59%
- Against the spread
- Dolphins +8.5
- Projected score
- Bengals 25, Dolphins 22
- Line
- Bengals −8.5
- Total
- 46.5 points
- Model margin
- Bengals by 2.6
Pick computed Wednesday, October 7, 6:50 PM.
Keys
- The model picks the Bengals to win with a 59% probability, against 41% for the Dolphins, with a projected score of 25-22.
- Against the spread, the model leans toward the Dolphins, as the Bengals are favored by 8.5 points and the model expects a margin of 2.6.
- The Dolphins arrive at 0-4 on an L4 streak, having scored 46 points while allowing 101.
- The Bengals, at 2-2 on an L2 streak, have a 46% playoff probability in the model, compared with 2% for the Dolphins.
Starting quarterbacks
- Joe Burrow no injury designation
- Malik Willis no injury designation
Injury report
Cincinnati Bengals
- QuestionableBJ HillAchilles - Questionable for Week 5 at Miami
- QuestionableBryan CookAnkle - Questionable for Week 5 at Miami
- QuestionableColbie YoungKnee - Questionable for Week 5 at Miami
- QuestionableJaxson KirklandUndisclosed - Questionable for Week 5 at Miami
- QuestionableKyle DuggerQuadriceps - Questionable for Week 5 at Miami
- QuestionableSwayze BozemanGroin - Questionable for Week 5 at Miami
- QuestionableTee HigginsGroin - Questionable for Week 5 at Miami
- QuestionableZack MossNeck - Questionable for Week 5 at Miami
Long-term absences (3)
- I.L.Andrei IosivasI.L. - Thumb
- I.L.Brian Parker III.L. - Undisclosed
- I.L.Jalen DavisI.L. - Hamstring
Miami Dolphins
- QuestionableBen SimsUndisclosed - Questionable for Week 5 vs. Cincinnati
- QuestionableCaleb DouglasAnkle - Questionable for Week 5 vs. Cincinnati
- QuestionableCarter WarrenUndisclosed - Questionable for Week 5 vs. Cincinnati
- QuestionableDante Trader Jr.Knee - Questionable for Week 5 vs. Cincinnati
- QuestionableEthan RobinsonUndisclosed - Questionable for Week 5 vs. Cincinnati
- QuestionableJackson WoodardAnkle - Questionable for Week 5 vs. Cincinnati
- QuestionableJamaree SalyerKnee - Questionable for Week 5 vs. Cincinnati
- QuestionableOmar BrownUndisclosed - Questionable for Week 5 vs. Cincinnati
- QuestionableRobert Beal Jr.Hamstring - Questionable for Week 5 vs. Cincinnati
- QuestionableZane GonzalezUndisclosed - Questionable for Week 5 vs. Cincinnati
Long-term absences (10)
- I.L.Cole TurnerI.L. - Undisclosed
- PUP listDarrell Baker Jr.Undisclosed - Physically Unable to Perform. Expected Return - Week 5
- I.L.Kenneth GrantI.L. - Leg
- I.L.Kyle LouisI.L. - Knee
- SidelinedReese TaylorQuadriceps - Out for Week 5 vs. Cincinnati. Expected Return - Week 7
- I.L.Rene KongaI.L. - Undisclosed
- I.L.Ronnie Harrison Jr.I.L. - Hamstring
- PUP listStorm DuckKnee - Physically Unable to Perform. Expected Return - Week 5
- I.L.Trey MooreI.L. - Ankle
- SidelinedTyreek HillKnee - ACL - Out for Week 5 vs. Cincinnati. Expected Return - Week 7
The two teams
| Bengals | Dolphins | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 2-2 | 0-4 |
| Home | 1-1 | 0-1 |
| Away | 1-1 | 0-3 |
| Points per game | 24.3 | 11.5 |
| Points allowed per game | 21.3 | 25.3 |
| Streak | Lost 2 | Lost 4 |
| Division rank | 4th in the AFC North | 4th in the AFC East |
| Elo | 1,508 | 1,399 |
How the pick is made
The model starts from each team's Elo rating and adds home-field advantage, rest and the status of the starting quarterback on the injury report. The difference gives the win probability and the projected score; the pick against the spread compares that margin with the market line.
Method and track record