Houston Texans at Tennessee Titans
Sunday, October 11, 1:00 PM. Nissan Stadium, Nashville.
Texans
1:00 PM
Titans
Win probability
The model's pick
- Pick
- Texans 64%
- Against the spread
- Titans +6.5
- Projected score
- Texans 21, Titans 17
- Line
- Texans −6.5
- Total
- 38.5 points
- Model margin
- Texans by 3.9
Pick computed Wednesday, October 7, 6:50 PM.
Keys
- The model picks the Texans with a 64% win probability, compared with 36% for the Titans.
- With the Texans favored by 6.5 points, the model likes the Titans against the spread, expecting a margin of 3.9 points.
- Both teams arrive at 0-4 on an L4 streak, with the Texans at 11% playoff odds and the Titans at 1%.
- The projected score is Texans 21, Titans 17 at Nissan Stadium.
Starting quarterbacks
- C.J. Stroud no injury designation
- Cameron Ward no injury designation
Injury report
Houston Texans
- QuestionableAzeez Al-ShaairGroin - Questionable for Week 5 at Tennessee
- QuestionableJaden CrumedyShoulder - Questionable for Week 5 at Tennessee
- QuestionableJaylin SmithHamstring - Questionable for Week 5 at Tennessee
- QuestionableJimmie WardFoot - Questionable for Week 5 at Tennessee
- QuestionableKurt HinishUndisclosed - Questionable for Week 5 at Tennessee
- QuestionableKyonte HamiltonUndisclosed - Questionable for Week 5 at Tennessee
Long-term absences (16)
- I.L.Ali GayeI.L. - Knee
- I.L.Braden SmithI.L. - Foot
- I.L.British BrooksI.L. - Hamstring
- PersonalCasey ToohillRetired
- I.L.Dylan HortonI.L. - Achilles
- PUP listE.J. SpeedQuadriceps - Physically Unable to Perform
- I.L.Graham MertzI.L. - Knee - ACL
- I.L.Jake HummelI.L. - Groin
- I.L.Jayden HigginsI.L. - Knee - ACL
- I.L.K.C. OssaiI.L. - Undisclosed
- I.L.Kayden McDonaldI.L. - Ankle
- PUP listM.J. StewartKnee - Physically Unable to Perform. Expected Return - Week 5
- I.L.Nathaniel DellI.L. - Knee - ACL + MCL
- SidelinedNoah WhittingtonQuadriceps - Out for Week 5 at Tennessee. Expected Return - Week 9
- I.L.Sam HagenI.L. - Undisclosed
- I.L.Solomon ByrdI.L. - Ankle
Tennessee Titans
- QuestionableDominique HamptonUndisclosed - Questionable for Week 5 vs. Houston
- QuestionableJalyn Armour-DavisAchilles - Questionable for Week 5 vs. Houston
- QuestionableNazeeh JohnsonAnkle - Questionable for Week 5 vs. Houston
- QuestionableSean BrownUndisclosed - Questionable for Week 5 vs. Houston
- QuestionableShadrach BanksUndisclosed - Questionable for Week 5 vs. Houston
Long-term absences (9)
- I.L.Dorian MausiI.L. - Undisclosed
- I.L.Fernando Carmona Jr.I.L. - Ankle
- I.L.Jackson SlaterI.L. - Foot
- I.L.Jaren KanakI.L. - Pectoral
- I.L.Jaylen HarrellI.L. - Knee - ACL
- I.L.Joshua WilliamsI.L. - Pectoral
- I.L.Kendell BrooksI.L. - Undisclosed
- I.L.Milo EiflerI.L. - Undisclosed
- I.L.Tanoh KpassagnonI.L. - Undisclosed
The two teams
| Texans | Titans | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 0-4 | 0-4 |
| Home | 0-3 | 0-2 |
| Away | 0-1 | 0-2 |
| Points per game | 21 | 13.8 |
| Points allowed per game | 27.3 | 20.8 |
| Streak | Lost 4 | Lost 4 |
| Division rank | 3rd in the AFC South | 4th in the AFC South |
| Elo | 1,490 | 1,347 |
How the pick is made
The model starts from each team's Elo rating and adds home-field advantage, rest and the status of the starting quarterback on the injury report. The difference gives the win probability and the projected score; the pick against the spread compares that margin with the market line.
Method and track record