Philadelphia Eagles at Jacksonville Jaguars
Sunday, October 11, 9:30 AM. Tottenham Hotspur Stadium, London.
Eagles
9:30 AM
Jaguars
Win probability
The model's pick
- Pick
- Jaguars 69%
- Against the spread
- Jaguars −2.5
- Projected score
- Eagles 19, Jaguars 25
- Line
- Jaguars −2.5
- Total
- 44.5 points
- Model margin
- Jaguars by 5.7
Pick computed Wednesday, October 7, 6:50 PM.
Keys
- The model picks the Jaguars with a 69% chance to win against the Eagles, who have 31%.
- With the line at Jaguars -2.5, the model also leans toward the Jaguars to cover the spread.
- The Jaguars arrive at 3-1 with a 2-game winning streak, having scored 104 points and allowed 53.
- The Eagles, at 2-2 with 2 straight losses, list six players as Questionable on the injury report, including DeVonta Smith and Dallas Goedert.
Starting quarterbacks
- Jalen Hurts no injury designation
- Trevor Lawrence no injury designation
Injury report
Philadelphia Eagles
- QuestionableCam JurgensConcussion - Questionable for Week 5 at Jacksonville
- QuestionableDallas GoedertKnee - MCL - Questionable for Week 5 at Jacksonville
- QuestionableDanny GrayUndisclosed - Questionable for Week 5 at Jacksonville
- QuestionableDeVonta SmithHamstring - Questionable for Week 5 at Jacksonville
- QuestionableElijah MitchellUndisclosed - Questionable for Week 5 at Jacksonville
- QuestionableFred JohnsonKnee - Questionable for Week 5 at Jacksonville
- QuestionableJonathan GreenardAnkle - Questionable for Week 5 at Jacksonville
- QuestionableLane JohnsonPersonal - Questionable for Week 5 at Jacksonville
- QuestionableMarcus EppsGroin - Questionable for Week 5 at Jacksonville
- QuestionableQuinyon MitchellKnee - Questionable for Week 5 at Jacksonville
- QuestionableSaquon BarkleyHamstring - Questionable for Week 5 at Jacksonville
- QuestionableTariq Castro-FieldsHeel - Questionable for Week 5 at Jacksonville
- QuestionableZack BaunConcussion - Questionable for Week 5 at Jacksonville
Long-term absences (8)
- SidelinedChance CampbellUndisclosed - Out for Week 5 at Jacksonville. Expected Return - Week 8
- I.L.Eli StowersI.L. - Hamstring
- I.L.Grant CalcaterraI.L. - Back
- I.L.Jakorian BennettI.L. - Knee
- I.L.Johnny WilsonI.L. - Knee
- I.L.Landon DickersonI.L. - Knee
- SidelinedTank BigsbyAbdomen - Out for Week 5 at Jacksonville. Expected Return - Week 9
- NFI listTucker LargeUndisclosed - NFI-R for Week 5 at Jacksonville
Jacksonville Jaguars
Nobody on the report.
The two teams
| Eagles | Jaguars | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 2-2 | 3-1 |
| Home | 1-1 | 2-0 |
| Away | 1-1 | 1-1 |
| Points per game | 18.8 | 26 |
| Points allowed per game | 23.3 | 13.3 |
| Streak | Lost 2 | Won 2 |
| Division rank | 2nd in the NFC East | 1st in the AFC South |
| Elo | 1,510 | 1,607 |
How the pick is made
The model starts from each team's Elo rating and adds home-field advantage, rest and the status of the starting quarterback on the injury report. The difference gives the win probability and the projected score; the pick against the spread compares that margin with the market line.
Method and track record