Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Dallas Cowboys
Thursday, October 8, 8:15 PM. AT&T Stadium, Arlington.
Buccaneers
8:15 PM
Cowboys
Win probability
The model's pick
- Pick
- Cowboys 66%
- Against the spread
- Buccaneers +9.5
- Projected score
- Buccaneers 21, Cowboys 26
- Line
- Cowboys −9.5
- Total
- 47.5 points
- Model margin
- Cowboys by 4.5
Pick computed Wednesday, October 7, 6:50 PM.
Keys
- The model picks the Cowboys to win, giving them a 66% probability against 34% for the Buccaneers.
- With the line at Cowboys -9.5, the model favors the Buccaneers against the spread, projecting Dallas to win by 4.5 points.
- The Buccaneers arrive 0-4 on an L4 streak, while the Cowboys are 2-2 after beating the Texans 34-30.
- The model projects a 26-21 Cowboys score; DeMarvion Overshown and Drew Shelton are listed as Questionable on the injury report.
Starting quarterbacks
- Jalon Daniels no injury designation
- Dak Prescott no injury designation
Injury report
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
- QuestionableBenjamin MorrisonQuadriceps - Questionable for Week 5 at Dallas
- QuestionableChase LucasUndisclosed - Questionable for Week 5 at Dallas
- QuestionableDamarion WilliamsUndisclosed - Questionable for Week 5 at Dallas
- QuestionableDennis HoustonGroin - Questionable for Week 5 at Dallas
- QuestionableDeshawn McKnightHamstring - Questionable for Week 5 at Dallas
- QuestionableJosiah TrotterKnee - Questionable for Week 5 at Dallas
- QuestionableKadarius CallowayUndisclosed - Questionable for Week 5 at Dallas
- QuestionableKemon HallUndisclosed - Questionable for Week 5 at Dallas
- QuestionableKo KieftElbow - Questionable for Week 5 at Dallas
- QuestionableMarcus BanksUndisclosed - Questionable for Week 5 at Dallas
- QuestionableSirVocea DennisAnkle - Questionable for Week 5 at Dallas
- QuestionableXavier WilliamsHip - Questionable for Week 5 at Dallas
Long-term absences (5)
- SidelinedAntoine Winfield Jr.Ribs - Out for Week 5 at Dallas. Expected Return - Week 6
- SidelinedBaker MayfieldThumb - Out for Week 5 at Dallas. Expected Return - Week 7
- I.L.Jalen McMillanI.L. - Knee - PCL
- I.L.Josh HayesI.L. - Knee
- I.L.Mohamed KamaraI.L. - Knee
Dallas Cowboys
- QuestionableDeMarvion OvershownHamstring - Questionable for Week 5 vs. Tampa Bay
- QuestionableDrew SheltonHamstring - Questionable for Week 5 vs. Tampa Bay
Long-term absences (11)
- I.L.D'Andre RogersI.L. - Knee
- I.L.Devin MooreI.L. - Hip
- I.L.Jalen ThompsonI.L. - Hamstring
- I.L.Jonathan BullardI.L. - Calf
- I.L.Kelvin GilliamI.L. - Triceps
- I.L.Malik DavisI.L. - Hip
- I.L.Marist LiufauI.L. - Forearm
- I.L.Matt HennessyI.L. - Neck
- I.L.P.J. LockeI.L. - Foot
- I.L.Princeton FantI.L. - Knee - ACL + MCL
- I.L.Tyler SmithI.L. - Thumb
The two teams
| Buccaneers | Cowboys | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 0-4 | 2-2 |
| Home | 0-3 | 1-1 |
| Away | 0-1 | 1-1 |
| Points per game | 19 | 30.5 |
| Points allowed per game | 24 | 28 |
| Streak | Lost 4 | Won 1 |
| Division rank | 4th in the NFC South | 3rd in the NFC East |
| Elo | 1,419 | 1,487 |
How the pick is made
The model starts from each team's Elo rating and adds home-field advantage, rest and the status of the starting quarterback on the injury report. The difference gives the win probability and the projected score; the pick against the spread compares that margin with the market line.
Method and track record