Miami Dolphins at Minnesota Vikings
Sunday, October 4, 4:05 PM. U.S. Bank Stadium, Minneapolis.
10
Final
15
Dolphins 10, Vikings 15
The model's pick
The pick is published during game week.
Recap
Vikings beat Dolphins 15-10
The Vikings controlled the first half, leading 9-0 at halftime with 3 points in the first quarter and 6 in the second. The Dolphins answered with 10 points in the third quarter, but Minnesota added 3 in the fourth to win at home in Minneapolis.
Starting quarterbacks
No starting quarterback data.
Injury report
Miami Dolphins
- QuestionableBen SimsUndisclosed - Questionable for Week 5 vs. Cincinnati
- QuestionableCaleb DouglasAnkle - Questionable for Week 5 vs. Cincinnati
- QuestionableCarter WarrenUndisclosed - Questionable for Week 5 vs. Cincinnati
- QuestionableDante Trader Jr.Knee - Questionable for Week 5 vs. Cincinnati
- QuestionableEthan RobinsonUndisclosed - Questionable for Week 5 vs. Cincinnati
- QuestionableJackson WoodardAnkle - Questionable for Week 5 vs. Cincinnati
- QuestionableJamaree SalyerKnee - Questionable for Week 5 vs. Cincinnati
- QuestionableOmar BrownUndisclosed - Questionable for Week 5 vs. Cincinnati
- QuestionableRobert Beal Jr.Hamstring - Questionable for Week 5 vs. Cincinnati
- QuestionableZane GonzalezUndisclosed - Questionable for Week 5 vs. Cincinnati
Long-term absences (10)
- I.L.Cole TurnerI.L. - Undisclosed
- PUP listDarrell Baker Jr.Undisclosed - Physically Unable to Perform. Expected Return - Week 5
- I.L.Kenneth GrantI.L. - Leg
- I.L.Kyle LouisI.L. - Knee
- SidelinedReese TaylorQuadriceps - Out for Week 5 vs. Cincinnati. Expected Return - Week 7
- I.L.Rene KongaI.L. - Undisclosed
- I.L.Ronnie Harrison Jr.I.L. - Hamstring
- PUP listStorm DuckKnee - Physically Unable to Perform. Expected Return - Week 5
- I.L.Trey MooreI.L. - Ankle
- SidelinedTyreek HillKnee - ACL - Out for Week 5 vs. Cincinnati. Expected Return - Week 7
Minnesota Vikings
- QuestionableBrett ThorsonHamstring - Questionable for Week 5 at New Orleans
- QuestionableCharles DemmingsHamstring - Questionable for Week 5 at New Orleans
- QuestionableChristian DarrisawConcussion - Questionable for Week 5 at New Orleans
- QuestionableJaylon HutchingsUndisclosed - Questionable for Week 5 at New Orleans
- QuestionableJeff OkudahConcussion - Questionable for Week 5 at New Orleans
- QuestionableJermar JeffersonUndisclosed - Questionable for Week 5 at New Orleans
- QuestionableJustin JeffersonAnkle - Questionable for Week 5 at New Orleans
- QuestionableKejon OwensIllness - Questionable for Week 5 at New Orleans
- QuestionableLuke WysongUndisclosed - Questionable for Week 5 at New Orleans
- QuestionableMarcus AllenUndisclosed - Questionable for Week 5 at New Orleans
- QuestionableMatt NelsonUndisclosed - Questionable for Week 5 at New Orleans
- QuestionableTaki TaimaniUndisclosed - Questionable for Week 5 at New Orleans
Long-term absences (10)
- I.L.Benjamin YurosekI.L. - Undisclosed
- UndisclosedC.J. HamRetired
- SidelinedDonovan JacksonKnee - Meniscus - Out for Week 5 at New Orleans
- I.L.Jamal AdamsI.L. - Quadriceps
- I.L.Jordan MasonI.L. - Thumb
- I.L.Josh OliverI.L. - Biceps
- I.L.Michael JurgensI.L. - Undisclosed
- I.L.Nick SamacI.L. - Knee
- I.L.Tyler BattyI.L. - Knee - ACL
- I.L.Tyreek ChappellI.L. - Undisclosed
The two teams
| Dolphins | Vikings | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 0-4 | 4-0 |
| Home | 0-1 | 2-0 |
| Away | 0-3 | 2-0 |
| Points per game | 11.5 | 21.5 |
| Points allowed per game | 25.3 | 12.8 |
| Streak | Lost 4 | Won 4 |
| Division rank | 4th in the AFC East | 1st in the NFC North |
How the pick is made
The model starts from each team's Elo rating and adds home-field advantage, rest and the status of the starting quarterback on the injury report. The difference gives the win probability and the projected score; the pick against the spread compares that margin with the market line.
Method and track record