New England Patriots at Buffalo Bills
Sunday, October 4, 1:00 PM. Highmark Stadium, Orchard Park.
29
Final
26
Patriots 29, Bills 26
The model's pick
The pick is published during game week.
Recap
Patriots beat Bills 29-26 in Orchard Park
The Patriots won 29-26 after trailing at halftime, when the Bills led 17-14 behind 17 points in the second quarter. New England scored 7 points in each of the first three quarters and 8 in the fourth, while Buffalo managed 9 in the final period.
Starting quarterbacks
No starting quarterback data.
Injury report
New England Patriots
Nobody on the report.
Buffalo Bills
- QuestionableChristian BenfordToe - Questionable for Week 5 at L.A. Rams
- QuestionableDee AlfordAnkle - Questionable for Week 5 at L.A. Rams
- QuestionableDemetrius Flannigan-FowlesUndisclosed - Questionable for Week 5 at L.A. Rams
- QuestionableDJ MooreShoulder - Questionable for Week 5 at L.A. Rams
- QuestionableEd OliverKnee - Questionable for Week 5 at L.A. Rams
- QuestionableGrant DuBoseShoulder - Questionable for Week 5 at L.A. Rams
- QuestionableJalen VirgilUndisclosed - Questionable for Week 5 at L.A. Rams
- QuestionableJordan PhillipsAnkle - Questionable for Week 5 at L.A. Rams
- QuestionableJordan PoyerHamstring - Questionable for Week 5 at L.A. Rams
- QuestionableT.J. SandersAppendix - Questionable for Week 5 at L.A. Rams
Long-term absences (4)
- NFI listDorian StrongNeck - NFI-R for Week 5 at L.A. Rams
- I.L.Jordan HancockI.L. - Hamstring
- PUP listTyrell ShaversKnee - ACL - Physically Unable to Perform. Expected Return - Week 5
- I.L.Zane DurantI.L. - Undisclosed
The two teams
| Patriots | Bills | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 2-2 | 3-1 |
| Home | 1-0 | 2-1 |
| Away | 1-2 | 1-0 |
| Points per game | 16.3 | 31.8 |
| Points allowed per game | 19.3 | 26.8 |
| Streak | Won 1 | Lost 1 |
| Division rank | 2nd in the AFC East | 1st in the AFC East |
How the pick is made
The model starts from each team's Elo rating and adds home-field advantage, rest and the status of the starting quarterback on the injury report. The difference gives the win probability and the projected score; the pick against the spread compares that margin with the market line.
Method and track record