Atlanta Falcons at Green Bay Packers
Thursday, September 24, 8:15 PM. Lambeau Field, Green Bay.
35
Final
14
Falcons 35, Packers 14
The model's pick
The pick is published during game week.
Starting quarterbacks
No starting quarterback data.
Injury report
Atlanta Falcons
- QuestionableJake MatthewsGroin - Questionable for Week 5 vs. Baltimore
- QuestionableJamal AgnewUndisclosed - Questionable for Week 5 vs. Baltimore
- QuestionableKevin KingUndisclosed - Questionable for Week 5 vs. Baltimore
- QuestionableMalik VerdonUndisclosed - Questionable for Week 5 vs. Baltimore
- QuestionableTroy AndersenKnee - Questionable for Week 5 vs. Baltimore
- QuestionableTyrone Wheatley Jr.Undisclosed - Questionable for Week 5 vs. Baltimore
Long-term absences (15)
- NFI listAnterio ThompsonUndisclosed - NFI-R for Week 5 vs. Baltimore
- I.L.Beaux CollinsI.L. - Undisclosed
- I.L.Cameron WilliamsI.L. - Ankle
- SidelinedCooper RushCoach's Decision - Inactive for Week 4 at New Orleans
- PUP listDeAngelo MaloneUndisclosed - Physically Unable to Perform
- SidelinedEthan OnianwaCoach's Decision - Inactive for Week 4 at New Orleans
- SidelinedJack StrandCoach's Decision - Inactive for Week 4 at New Orleans
- I.L.Jalon WalkerI.L. - Knee - ACL
- SidelinedJared IveyCoach's Decision - Inactive for Week 4 at New Orleans
- I.L.JD BertrandI.L. - Undisclosed
- LegKaleb McGaryRetired
- SidelinedMalcom DeWalt IVCoach's Decision - Inactive for Week 4 at New Orleans
- SidelinedRobert LongerbeamCoach's Decision - Inactive for Week 4 at New Orleans
- PUP listStorm NortonFoot - Physically Unable to Perform
- I.L.Trey SermonI.L. - Undisclosed
Green Bay Packers
- QuestionableAaron BanksToe - Questionable for Week 5 vs. Chicago
- QuestionableAnthony CampbellAnkle - Questionable for Week 5 vs. Chicago
- QuestionableBrandon CisseNeck - Questionable for Week 5 vs. Chicago
- QuestionableIsaiah DunnUndisclosed - Questionable for Week 5 vs. Chicago
- QuestionableJacob MonkQuadriceps - Questionable for Week 5 vs. Chicago
- QuestionableLuke LacheyFoot - Questionable for Week 5 vs. Chicago
- QuestionableMarlon Jones Jr.Undisclosed - Questionable for Week 5 vs. Chicago
- QuestionablePierre Strong Jr.Hamstring - Questionable for Week 5 vs. Chicago
- QuestionableRJ MarylandHamstring - Questionable for Week 5 vs. Chicago
- QuestionableTrey Dean IIIUndisclosed - Questionable for Week 5 vs. Chicago
Long-term absences (10)
- I.L.Collin OliverI.L. - Achilles
- SidelinedEdgerrin CooperAchilles - Out for Week 5 vs. Chicago
- I.L.Jayden ReedI.L. - Neck
- PUP listJordon RileyAchilles - Physically Unable to Perform. Expected Return - Week 5
- PUP listLuke MusgraveNeck - Physically Unable to Perform. Expected Return - Week 5
- PUP listMicah ParsonsKnee - ACL - Physically Unable to Perform. Expected Return - Week 6
- I.L.Savion WilliamsI.L. - Ankle
- I.L.Thomas YassminI.L. - Undisclosed
- I.L.Warren BrinsonI.L. - Calf
- I.L.Zach TomI.L. - Knee
The two teams
| Falcons | Packers | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 2-2 | 2-2 |
| Home | 0-1 | 0-1 |
| Away | 2-1 | 2-1 |
| Points per game | 24 | 18.3 |
| Points allowed per game | 23 | 26.3 |
| Streak | Won 2 | Won 1 |
| Division rank | 2nd in the NFC South | 4th in the NFC North |
How the pick is made
The model starts from each team's Elo rating and adds home-field advantage, rest and the status of the starting quarterback on the injury report. The difference gives the win probability and the projected score; the pick against the spread compares that margin with the market line.
Method and track record