Jacksonville Jaguars at Denver Broncos
Sunday, September 20, 4:05 PM. Empower Field at Mile High, Denver.
13
Final
20
Jaguars 13, Broncos 20
The model's pick
The pick is published during game week.
Starting quarterbacks
No starting quarterback data.
Injury report
Jacksonville Jaguars
Nobody on the report.
Denver Broncos
- QuestionableBlake CottonHamstring - Questionable for Week 5 at L.A. Chargers
- QuestionableDondrea TillmanHamstring - Questionable for Week 5 at L.A. Chargers
- QuestionableDrew SandersUndisclosed - Questionable for Week 5 at L.A. Chargers
- QuestionableMichael Woods IILeg - Questionable for Week 5 at L.A. Chargers
- QuestionablePat BryantAnkle - Questionable for Week 5 at L.A. Chargers
- QuestionableRiley MossRibs - Questionable for Week 5 at L.A. Chargers
Long-term absences (7)
- I.L.Caleb LohnerI.L. - Lower Body
- I.L.Frank CrumI.L. - Undisclosed
- I.L.Jonah ColemanI.L. - Ankle
- I.L.Levelle BaileyI.L. - Leg
- I.L.Matt HenningsenI.L. - Achilles
- I.L.Michael DeiterI.L. - Quadriceps
- PUP listNick GargiuloKnee - ACL - Physically Unable to Perform. Expected Return - Week 5
The two teams
| Jaguars | Broncos | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 3-1 | 2-2 |
| Home | 2-0 | 2-0 |
| Away | 1-1 | 0-2 |
| Points per game | 26 | 18.5 |
| Points allowed per game | 13.3 | 23.5 |
| Streak | Won 2 | Lost 1 |
| Division rank | 1st in the AFC South | 3rd in the AFC West |
How the pick is made
The model starts from each team's Elo rating and adds home-field advantage, rest and the status of the starting quarterback on the injury report. The difference gives the win probability and the projected score; the pick against the spread compares that margin with the market line.
Method and track record