Detroit Lions at Buffalo Bills
Thursday, September 17, 8:15 PM. Highmark Stadium, Orchard Park.
31
Final
41
Lions 31, Bills 41
The model's pick
The pick is published during game week.
Starting quarterbacks
No starting quarterback data.
Injury report
Detroit Lions
- QuestionableAidan KeanaainaUndisclosed - Questionable for Week 5 at Arizona
- QuestionableBen BartchFoot - Questionable for Week 5 at Arizona
- QuestionableCedrick Wilson Jr.Knee - Questionable for Week 5 at Arizona
- QuestionableDicaprio BootleUndisclosed - Questionable for Week 5 at Arizona
- QuestionableEmmanuel MoseleyIllness - Questionable for Week 5 at Arizona
- QuestionableJamarco JonesAchilles - Questionable for Week 5 at Arizona
- QuestionableKye RobichauxFoot - Questionable for Week 5 at Arizona
- QuestionableLoren StricklandUndisclosed - Questionable for Week 5 at Arizona
- QuestionableLuke DealUndisclosed - Questionable for Week 5 at Arizona
- QuestionableMichael NieseLeg - Questionable for Week 5 at Arizona
- QuestionableRaheem BlackshearUndisclosed - Questionable for Week 5 at Arizona
- QuestionableRock Ya-SinHamstring - Questionable for Week 5 at Arizona
- QuestionableZach CunninghamHamstring - Questionable for Week 5 at Arizona
Long-term absences (12)
- I.L.Avonte MaddoxI.L. - Foot
- PUP listBrian BranchAchilles - Physically Unable to Perform. Expected Return - Week 5
- I.L.Cade MaysI.L. - Wrist
- I.L.Damone ClarkI.L. - Undisclosed
- NFI listGiovanni ManuKnee - NFI-R for Week 5 at Arizona
- I.L.Isiah PachecoI.L. - Back
- I.L.Kendrick LawI.L. - Knee - ACL
- PUP listKerby JosephKnee - Physically Unable to Perform. Expected Return - Week 5
- SidelinedMason MillerUndisclosed - Out for Week 5 at Arizona. Expected Return - Week 5
- I.L.Payton TurnerI.L. - Back
- UndisclosedTeddy BridgewaterRetired
- I.L.Thomas HarperI.L. - Ankle
Buffalo Bills
- QuestionableChristian BenfordToe - Questionable for Week 5 at L.A. Rams
- QuestionableDee AlfordAnkle - Questionable for Week 5 at L.A. Rams
- QuestionableDemetrius Flannigan-FowlesUndisclosed - Questionable for Week 5 at L.A. Rams
- QuestionableDJ MooreShoulder - Questionable for Week 5 at L.A. Rams
- QuestionableEd OliverKnee - Questionable for Week 5 at L.A. Rams
- QuestionableGrant DuBoseShoulder - Questionable for Week 5 at L.A. Rams
- QuestionableJalen VirgilUndisclosed - Questionable for Week 5 at L.A. Rams
- QuestionableJordan PhillipsAnkle - Questionable for Week 5 at L.A. Rams
- QuestionableJordan PoyerHamstring - Questionable for Week 5 at L.A. Rams
- QuestionableT.J. SandersAppendix - Questionable for Week 5 at L.A. Rams
Long-term absences (4)
- NFI listDorian StrongNeck - NFI-R for Week 5 at L.A. Rams
- I.L.Jordan HancockI.L. - Hamstring
- PUP listTyrell ShaversKnee - ACL - Physically Unable to Perform. Expected Return - Week 5
- I.L.Zane DurantI.L. - Undisclosed
The two teams
| Lions | Bills | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 2-2 | 3-1 |
| Home | 2-0 | 2-1 |
| Away | 0-2 | 1-0 |
| Points per game | 29.8 | 31.8 |
| Points allowed per game | 31.8 | 26.8 |
| Streak | Lost 1 | Lost 1 |
| Division rank | 3rd in the NFC North | 1st in the AFC East |
How the pick is made
The model starts from each team's Elo rating and adds home-field advantage, rest and the status of the starting quarterback on the injury report. The difference gives the win probability and the projected score; the pick against the spread compares that margin with the market line.
Method and track record