Denver Broncos at Kansas City Chiefs
Monday, September 14, 8:15 PM. Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City.
10
Final
31
Broncos 10, Chiefs 31
The model's pick
The pick is published during game week.
Starting quarterbacks
No starting quarterback data.
Injury report
Denver Broncos
- QuestionableBlake CottonHamstring - Questionable for Week 5 at L.A. Chargers
- QuestionableDondrea TillmanHamstring - Questionable for Week 5 at L.A. Chargers
- QuestionableDrew SandersUndisclosed - Questionable for Week 5 at L.A. Chargers
- QuestionableMichael Woods IILeg - Questionable for Week 5 at L.A. Chargers
- QuestionablePat BryantAnkle - Questionable for Week 5 at L.A. Chargers
- QuestionableRiley MossRibs - Questionable for Week 5 at L.A. Chargers
Long-term absences (7)
- I.L.Caleb LohnerI.L. - Lower Body
- I.L.Frank CrumI.L. - Undisclosed
- I.L.Jonah ColemanI.L. - Ankle
- I.L.Levelle BaileyI.L. - Leg
- I.L.Matt HenningsenI.L. - Achilles
- I.L.Michael DeiterI.L. - Quadriceps
- PUP listNick GargiuloKnee - ACL - Physically Unable to Perform. Expected Return - Week 5
Kansas City Chiefs
- QuestionableC.J. HansonUndisclosed - Questionable for Week 6 vs. L.A. Chargers
- QuestionableChris OladokunUndisclosed - Questionable for Week 6 vs. L.A. Chargers
- QuestionableDeon BushAchilles - Questionable for Week 6 vs. L.A. Chargers
- QuestionableE.J. SmithUndisclosed - Questionable for Week 6 vs. L.A. Chargers
- QuestionableJosh SimmonsBack - Questionable for Week 6 vs. L.A. Chargers
- QuestionableRashee RiceHamstring - Questionable for Week 6 vs. L.A. Chargers
Long-term absences (8)
- I.L.Cooper McDonaldI.L. - Knee
- I.L.Ethan DownsI.L. - Knee - ACL
- I.L.Jeff CaldwellI.L. - Knee
- I.L.Jimmy HolidayI.L. - Undisclosed
- I.L.John Michael GyllenborgI.L. - Knee
- I.L.Matt WaletzkoI.L. - Undisclosed
- PUP listOmarr NormanLottKnee - ACL - Physically Unable to Perform. Expected Return - Week 6
- SidelinedTyquan ThorntonAnkle - Out for Week 6 vs. L.A. Chargers
The two teams
| Broncos | Chiefs | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 2-2 | 4-0 |
| Home | 2-0 | 2-0 |
| Away | 0-2 | 2-0 |
| Points per game | 18.5 | 29.5 |
| Points allowed per game | 23.5 | 19.3 |
| Streak | Lost 1 | Won 4 |
| Division rank | 3rd in the AFC West | 1st in the AFC West |
How the pick is made
The model starts from each team's Elo rating and adds home-field advantage, rest and the status of the starting quarterback on the injury report. The difference gives the win probability and the projected score; the pick against the spread compares that margin with the market line.
Method and track record